Good morning atmospheric audience. How about that 4/5-day stretch of truly outstanding mid-September-like conditions?! Bluebird skies, a refreshing airmass, upper 70s for highs with some areas breaking record lows! WeatherReMarks headquarters actually hit a back-to-back morning low Sunday and Monday of 49°F!
That said, I’m back with a brief follow-up to my last Tuesday 7/21 post. I alluded to a deep trough along the East Coast for this week and a possible Nor’easter. Well, that’s not the type of storm that’s coming, but a slow-moving upper-level closed off low will dump a disruptive amount of flooding downpours and a literal train of rainfall along with numerous t-storms this afternoon into Wednesday for the Tri-state area, and Wednesday to Thursday for New England. You’ll definitely notice the arrival of the humid airmass. An inverted trough and the full moon on Wednesday could add to moderate coastal flooding. Ok, let’s break down timing and totals for both coverage areas below.
Tri-State Area
A Flood Watch has been issued for all of NJ, the 5 boroughs, including the Hudson Valley. What to expect: flash flooding, especially in the usual prone urban areas, and poor drainage spots, multiple rounds of t-storms (bonker boomer and bolts), and an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out. Widespread 2-4″, and if under difficult-to-forecast banding features, jackpot areas up to 6″+ are on the table. Social media will be flooded with videos of cars stuck, etc.
The higher risk areas at the moment are a narrow band from Newark to NYC up to Newburgh, subject to change. As far as timing, there will be isolated pop-up cells late morning to early afternoon across the entire tri-state. If you’re caught under one of these cells. you could see high rates. Heavy downpours become more widespread late afternoon into the evening hours across NJ, the 5 boroughs, and Hudson Valley. Parts of Long Island as of this write-up, get into the game overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning with heavy downpour/flooding possible. Off and on showers linger into Thursday and Friday (details coming). Check out the approximate timing below:
New England
A different ball game on Tuesday for NH than we’ve had for the past 5 days. Wind direction rotates out of the south driving a humid, and warm air mass to the area. Pop-up cells arrive in the mid-to-late afternoon across the state, but not widespread. Some will contain heavy downpours and lightning. For Wednesday, flooding downpours are more widespread and arrive late morning, lasting into Thursday morning.
That’s it for now. I’ll be back later this week with an update on the next 2 weeks, a brief August outlook, and a QuakeReMarks update. Warm days ahead, even a stretch of 90s possibly. But overall I like normal to below trends in the coming weeks. Drive safe the next 2 days. Be sure to check your inboxes later this week. Lots to talk about and as you know, Weather Never Sleeps!