Good morning atmospheric audience. Hope everyone is well! I’m back with an update on the timing and what to expect on today’s severe storms across the Tri-State and Northeast, a quick update on temperatures for the remainder of July, and the latest QuakeReMarks update.
Let’s hit today’s main event first. Severe thunderstorms are expected today into the evening across the tri-state and New England. These storms, ignited by a strong upper trough and high dew points, could bring widespread damaging winds, flooding downpours, hail, with a potential for tornadoes in NJ.
A Flood Watch has been issued for NJ and the 5 boroughs, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued later today (A Tornado Watch could be issued as well). One fly in the ointment is the wildfire smoke. Depending on thickness, it could temper some of the severity, changing the timing on the arrival of thunderstorms. But on the flipside, the strong cold front will clear out a majority of the smoke later today to early next week (see below for the 48 hour smoke density forecast).
OK, let’s break down the timing and what to expect across my two Coverage areas, the tri-state and New England below. Again, take the time stamps with a grain of salt. They could go up in smoke. I know this could be all smoke and mirrors. But it could be a smoke signal. Hey, when there’s smoke there is fire! Ok ok, I’m done. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Tri-State Area
While all is this quiet morning, pop-up and isolated cells moving west to east arrive in NJ and lower Hudson Valley late morning to early afternoon. These cells will contain heavy to flooding downpours. As temperatures rise and dew points climb, this will destabilize the atmosphere, leading to more widespread storms throughout the tri-state area. Timing on these are challenging with this set up, but it is certainly not a boat day. For the moment it appears there’s a break late afternoon into the early evening hours before the next line moves through. Current models are showing this line to be severe. The atmosphere may just produce heavy downpours as opposed to strong winds, but we’ll see. For an approximate timing look at maps below. Bottom line, keep an eye on the sky.
New England
Interesting set up today across New England. Well, it will be a warm and humid day with temps climbing into the mid to upper 80s. But wildfire smoke will be high today, could lead to a cap on temperatures and potentially hamper any severe storm outbreak, but we’ll see. While it will be a dry morning showers move into New Hampshire in the early afternoon becoming more widespread throughout the day. Some of these cells could contain some boomers along with heavy downpours. There could be a break in the late afternoon into the early evening before a stronger line of thunderstorms moves through. Current guidance shows this line moving through Keene between 5-6 PM, reaching the Seacoast between 6-8 PM. For those prowling in Portsmouth tonight, at the moment, looks like downpours taper off between 8-10pm. But I’d plan for downpours either way. See maps below for timing.
Sunday Stunner
Gorgeous day is on tap after the storms wipe out the heat, humidity and smoke at least for now. Skies will be mostly sunny with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s along with a dry air mass across the entire northeast.
Temperature Outlook for Last 2 Weeks of July
No long-term duration heat waves over the next two weeks. In fact, it looks like temperatures will trend below normal for the remainder of July. Conversely, precipitation will be above normal.
QuakeReMarks Update
Will keep it brief for now, but seismic activity has certainly picked up since my July 4 update. While a 6 has not hit the coast of California or Japan as of yet, that forecast still remains. Plus I’m expanding area for up to a 6.0 by the Canadian/US border. Add Maine/Canadian border up to a 4.0 in the coming weeks. To my text subscribers for quake updates, I put a forecast out on 7/10 for the following:
“All quiet over the past 7 days with no magnitude 6.1+ earthquakes globally. However, given recent earth facing coronal hole, solar wind, and geomagnetic activity, I’m looking for a 7+ or larger quake(s) shortly. Possible spots: Japan, Indonesia, China, Kamchatka, and the Aleutian Islands (AK).“
A 6.2 hit just north of Indonesia on 7/14. While not one of my spots, a strong magnitude 7.3 quake hit off the coast of Mexico yesterday (followed by a swarm of 39 aftershocks between 4.0 and 6.0)! I anticipate activity to continue as a new coronal hole (see above) has moved front and center along with sun spots moving from the far side of the sun towards us next week.
That’s it for now. Keep an eye on the sky across the northeast today especially across the tri-state area. Enjoy the beautiful day tomorrow. Conditions will be ideal for the World Cup at the Meadowlands. I’ll be back shortly with an update on the tropics, earthquake activity, and my August forecast. Remember, weather never sleeps!
Notes aside, check out my tweet I sent out Thursday night on 2 videos sent to me from my longtime storm spotter, Brandt, on a train of nasty flooding cells that hit Long Beach Island!