Good afternoon, atmospheric audience! Happy 250th Birthday, America, and Happy July 4th! Unless you’re cut off from society, live under a rock, or just off social media altogether, clearly you all know we have ourselves a heat wave. I wanted to jump on and let you know when relief is in sight, what the skies look like for tonight’s bbq’s, fireworks festivities, and temperature forecast for the next couple of weeks. Finally, a quick thought on hurricanes and what’s going on with all the earthquakes lately.Â
I know some media outlets and some people are using this heat wave to make absurd comments. To save space, I’m not gonna go into a deep dive, but in short, it’s summer it gets hot. Heat waves happen. Plus, earth tends to balance itself out when it comes to extremes. If you look at the map above, during our heat wave in the Northeast, take a look at the Northwest, which has been well below normal.
Also, Alaska temps are well below normal so far this summer. That said, my crack staff (that’s me) put together the Almanac for normal high and low on this date, and record high and low on this date for a city near you. See below. Just an observation: take a look at most of the years when the record highs were hit on this date. Notice anything? Ok, let’s talk about today’s and tomorrow’s forecast, plus the week ahead, broken down as always below between the tri-state and New England.Â
Tri-State Area
We have another scorcher on our hands with widespread temperatures in the upper 90s, near 100°F. Any relief, if you want to call it that, will be found at the usual spots along the Jersey shore (LBI) and southern Long Island coastal sections.Â
For evening barbecues and fireworks festivities, there is a threat of isolated strong storms across the tri-state. Fortunately, not widespread and will be broken up. A few pop-ups approach Hudson Valley (including Mt Kisco) between 7 and 8 PM. Further south from Stockton to Ringoes over to Rumson, and towns north between 9pm-10pm, and on over to NYC and LI from 10pm to midnight.
That said, keep an eye on the sky, as pop-ups are possible at any time tonight. If you’re on X, I’ll be posting any warnings or pending cells throughout the night.
For Sunday, big changes are coming. It’ll be hot but not as bad as the previous few days. Hudson Valley and Long Island will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. Inland across NJ will be in the low to mid 90s. But the relief is on its way. As strong cold powers its way into the area, expect heavy and widespread downpours and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Subject to timing could have a major impact on the mad rush to get home from the long holiday weekend. These showers and thunderstorms could be heavy into Monday, ending Tuesday , with parts of the tri-state area receiving 1 up to 3 inches (isolated higher amounts).
I’ll be tracking the timing of Sunday night storms and circle back with a brief update tomorrow morning.
New England (Sat and Sun)
While still a hot and humid day across New England today, temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. In terms of timing on isolated t-storms (one just moved through at 2:30pm along Seacoast dropping temps by 13° in 25min to 75°F!), while not widespread, expect line to move from west to east along southern NH, from around 6pm near Keene. Reaching the Seacoast between 7-9pm.
For Sunday, a dramatic change is coming! How’s morning in the low 60s (50s in the mountains!) sound?? Much cooler and drier airmass will blanket the area with highs in just the upper 70s in the mountains to low 80s and low humidity across the Seacoast! Skies will be partly sunny for the day.
Northeast Week Ahead
For the week ahead (see above), temperatures will be below normal, a much-needed break from the heat we’ve experienced. While it looks like the Southwest part of United States is going to fry in week 2 (still below normal for NE, see below), there may be a trough setting up along the East Coast.
Too early for details, but the Northeast could be in the crosshairs for tropical hit this season. While well overdue, the pattern is suggesting the threat is there. More to come on this. As mentioned in my previous post, the strong El Niño will limit major activity in the Atlantic. But conversely, significant activity in the Pacific is possible. There’s currently a super typhoon, Bavi (Category 5) headed towards Guam.
QuakeReMarks Update
As a recap since my 5/20 hint of an active June, we’ve seen numerous large earthquakes around the world. Among many were the devastating doublet in Venezuela, where 7.2 and 7.5 hit, one of the largest since the early 1900s. Over 2,600 have died, knocking down thousands of buildings, and some reports of 40,000 to 50,000 missing. A rare 6.0 hit in the Gulf of America near Cuba, a 6.0 in the Gulf of California near Baja, a 5.5 on Juan de Fuca fracture Zoom off the coast of Oregon, a 6.9 off the coast of Japan, a 7.8 in the Philippines, among others.
Per my quake text update on 5/25, was looking for up to 4.0 around NJ (a smaller 2.4 hit in Maryland on 6/15) and up to 4 around Quebec NH/VT area (a 4.4 hit 200mi north of Quebec on 6/18, plus I was looking for up to 7 in Iran (a 4.9 hit on 6/8).
Seismic activity has had a significant pickup, partially driven by a major uptick in sunspot and solar activity. Anyone capture the Aurora’s late last night? A modest CME and solar wind reached Earth’s atmosphere, creating once again low-latitude auroras as far south as TX. This is a poor picture, but I captured this driving over a bridge in New Hampshire last night.
Another coronal hole will be Earth-facing in the coming week. Watching areas centered on the entire coast of California for potential 6.0 or larger, as well as more activity centered around Japan. Again, impossible to give timing on my mega quake call for Japan. Yes, I’ve been talking about it for a while now. But it’s still on the table, and areas that I’ve been tracking continue to be locked as the pressure spreads.
That’s it for now. Have a great Fourth of July weekend. Again, I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a very brief update on the timing of tomorrow afternoon/evening into Monday morning’s front. Most importantly, remember, weather never sleeps!