- Brief Burst of Heat Ends Today
- Memorial Day Wknd Outlook
- End of May / June Outlook
- El Niño: Brief Thoughts
- QuakeReMarks Update
Good morning atmospheric audience! Today, we’re going to cover when this brief burst of heat ends, my outlook for the Memorial Day weekend, thoughts on the last week in May, and a sneak peak of June, some tidbits on the hyped El Niño and finally a follow up from my previous quake forecast.
As mentioned in my last post this past weekend’s warmth would continue into this week, yesterday was a hot one with a few records broken (see high temperatures above). Widespread 90s were hit from Baltimore to Bangor. Late afternoon pop up storms knocked down temps across the region. For the few who love this, we have just one more day of summer like conditions today. Another spike into upper 80s across NH/ME, and low to mid 90s across the tri-state is on tap (see above forecasted 12pm temps). Look for isolated to scattered t-storms (some may be strong, especially in the tri-state) in mid to late afternoon into sundown. This will take temps down into the 70s after dark, and into the low 50s Thursday morning!
Thursday and Friday
Thursday and Friday are polar opposites from Tuesday and Wednesday, as we head back to below normal temps. For NH/ME both days will be under mostly sunny skies coupled with a comfortable airmass, as temps top out in the upper 60s. How does Friday morning lows in the 40s (30s in northern New Hampshire) sound?
For the tri-state area, Thursday starts off cloudy with isolated showers but skies clear in the afternoon. Temps also stuck in the low 60s for highs. Friday’s a stunner yet cooler than normal with temps in the low 60s.
Memorial Day Weekend (Location, Location, Location)
Model mayhem is creating conflict between New England and the Tri-state this weekend. A quick first look for the tri-state area, it’s not great to be honest. Misty with off and on showers all weekend with temps stuck in the 50s on Saturday, upper 50s to low 60s Sunday, and depending on where front stalls, upper 60s are possible on Monday. I’ll circle back when there’s a more definitive outlook.
For NH/ME, Saturday is shaping up to be dry, at least until after dark with temps in the low 60s. Rain makes its way north Saturday night into early Sunday. For the moment, a sharp boundary is lining up Sunday. The further north you are in NH the higher probability of no rain. Monday is looking more unsettled, unfortunately. Again, the devil is in the details which I try and narrow down with an update Thursday or Friday.
Last Week of May and June Outlook
For a quick look at the last week in May, temperatures continue to trend below normal and above normal precipitation (see above). For an early look at June, temperatures look to be running normal to slightly below. As far as rain is concerned, it’ll be above normal but especially in the southeast.
For my Floridian followers and South Carolina subscribers, your drought is about to be busted. Significant and most needed rainfall is headed your way. As mentioned in my last post, a possible early season tropical development in the Gulf of America could add to totals.
El Niño Headline Hype
Given the length of this post, I’ll keep this topic very brief for now. A strong El Niño is forecasted for later this year. Have there been stronger ones? Yes. Does this mean weather is going to go insane? No. 2 points to share. First, the picture above used on a Instagram post shows an exaggerated extreme color (temperatures) gradient. Look how this compares to the European extended seasonal forecast below. You be the judge.
What a strong El Niño sometimes leads to is a below average Atlantic hurricane season. That’s good news. Conversely, the Pacific, especially the WestPac, which has been well below normal for years, will become very active this season. Bottom line, each El Niño is different. More details coming.
QuakeReMarks Update
Per my May 14th post forecasting a brief uptick in magnitude 6.5 or greater global quakes in the next few days as a result of the large earth facing coronal hole, later that day a 6.2 hit in Indonesia. Then 24 hours later, a 6.7 hit off the coast of Japan!
What’s next you might ask? Well interestingly enough, while the sun is quiet with little to no activity, lurking on the far side is a very large and extremely active group of spots that have produced M and X class flares.
They’ll be rotating to the eastern limb and earth facing in the next couple days. No guarantees if they produce any CME’s that have a direct impact on seismic activity, but I will be tracking this very closely. Things could get very interesting soon with June potentially being an active month. Stay tuned.
That’s it for now. I’ll be back shortly with a deeper dive on the weekend weather. Time for some shuteye as weather never sleeps!
Notes aside: credit to my daughter on the featured image of the stunning sunrise she captured in Hampton Beach!