- Tri-State, kitchen sink (plus thunder and wild temperature swings)
- Southern New England plowable snow / sleet / ice
- Gusty conditions after storm followed by frigid temps
- Blizzard lurking w more threats
Good evening, atmospheric audience! Did you miss me? We added an additional 1.3″ for 6 snow events in 15 days, for a total of 25.9″ at WeatherRemarks Headquarters. Ironically, that’s 0.3 inches away from normal at this time of year. And the hits keep on coming with our next event Saturday afternoon into all day Sunday for the Northeast. This one is much longer in duration with a lot more moisture in it. Unfortunately (or fortunately for winter haters, you know who you are) for the tri-state, this again is not your plowable storm, yet. Although the front end will see accumulating snow quickly changing over to sleet, freezing rain, followed by strong winds on the back end later Sunday into Monday. Further north into southern New England up into the Greens, Whites, and the Loaf, it’s a much different situation. We’ll get into the nitty-gritty in just a minute.
Also, I’ll address the recurring bowling balls I had mentioned back on February 5, as well as the double “B” word that I keep on saying may happen. Actually it’s now showing up on many models for the end of next week. Who gets the gutter ball, who gets the spare, and who gets the strike remains to be seen. It’s very early for specifics, but the pattern of recurring storm threats is on the table. Even after next week into the last week of February, multiple threats of major snowstorms combining with below-average temperatures is on the table folks. Anyone excited yet? OK, lots to discuss, so let’s get right to it.
Tri-State Area (NJ/LI/Hudson Valley/CT)
Let’s start with the tri-state area first. Precip begins as snow late morning to early afternoon from west to east across Central and Southern New Jersey, Hudson Valley, and Long Island. As warm air moves into the region, any snow will transition to sleet, freezing rain to all rain in the early evening hours before tapering off by daybreak Sunday morning. That, however, won’t last as a warm front moves into the tri-state with heavy downpours, gusty winds (30-50mph, especially along the coast), and don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder. Skies clear between 5 and 7 p.m.
Temperatures are going to spike from the mid-30s early in the day Sunday to close to 60°F across central/southern NJ and Long Island! However, temperatures do an about face and plunge into the 20s, (the teens NWNJ and Hudson Valley by Monday morning), and winds will be howling! Be sure to put down salt on your walkways Sunday night so you don’t break a hip Monday morning out the door.
This is a moisture-filled event with 1 1/2 to 2″ of liquid falling by the end of the storm. In terms of snowfall (at the front end), no more than 1 to 3″ can be expected just south of 78, from Stockton to Staten Island into Long Island (nil for SNJ). In the higher elevations in NWNJ up to Hudson Valley, from Newburgh to New Paltz, a quick 3 to 5 inches is possible. But those totals could be tapered by heavy sleet, freezing rain, and rain as the system moves through.
Southern New England (Boston area up to the Seacoast and Maine)
For my followers along the Seacoast in Southeast NH, and southwest coastal sections of Maine, snow moves into the area beginning between 6 and 9 p.m. Saturday night. This is also a long-duration moisture-filled event that will begin as heavy, wet snow right into the early morning hours.
As the warm air begins to move northward, snow begins to transition to heavy sleet/ freezing rain from south to north in the morning hours, and last all day into sundown Sunday. This will create very hazardous driving conditions, and I strongly recommend being off the roads throughout the day on Sunday. The storm tapers off before midnight, but as the cold air comes roaring in from the northwest, snow squalls can’t be ruled out overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Expect a frigid Presidents’ Day on Monday with temps topping out in the 20s with upper single digit wind chillls!
In terms of snow accumulations, this is the tricky part, depending on the timing of warm air loft and how that would impact the change over to sleet will dictate snow totals. From southern NH from Merrimack to Madbury up to Meredith, look for 5-8″. However, once north of Lake Winnie to Carroll, Grafton and Coos counties, those numbers jump to 6 to 10″. Unlike the previous recent snow events that were light and fluffy, this will be heavy cement/heart attack type snow.
For the week ahead, as I alluded 2 days ago, bundle up as the next Arctic air mass makes its way to the Northeast.
Certainly not the 30° to 40° below zero at into Dakota’s and Montana (even single digits into the Panhandle of Texas), it will be bitterly cold this week ahead for the Northeast and especially in New England.
As far as the double B word (blockbuster blizzard if you haven’t figured that out yet) that I’ve alluded to lurking for this month, now showing strong signals of a major storm in the Northeast next Wednesday night into Friday. I’m not forecasting a lock by any means, but from the pattern recognition that I saw in my February 5th post, is now seemingly coming to fruition.
A lot can go wrong, and long-term subscribers of mine know I always state that a 50 or 100 miles east-west move of a system can make the difference between a dusting and a foot+ on the ground. The atmospheric gears have to be perfect in order for a massive snowstorm to hit the Northeast, one of which is where the upper low is located as the storm progresses to the East Coast. Also, where that low eventually deepens offshore. If it’s in that benchmark, 40°N/70°W, bamm. We’ll have an Arctic airmass in place which is a key, but not only ingredient. My confidence level will come most likely Sunday night or Monday. Whether this storm hits next week or not, there are at least two or three additional storms lurking after during the last week of February into March. Plus you know my thoughts on March storms which I’ve written about over the years. Stay tuned for what’s coming! Watch your backs when shoveling, IF possible stay off roads Sunday in NH/ ME, salt walkways and driveways on Sunday night, and get some serious rest, because Old Man Winter and weather never sleeps!