Good afternoon weather folks! I’m back with another brief update on the upcoming weekend storm I alluded to on Monday. The previous storm performed pretty much as expected with the exception of Boston area as snow totals were lower than forecasted due to east winds off the ocean. See below some of the updates I provided on Twitter with totals for the tri-state area, New York, Connecticut, Boston, and up to New Hampshire and Maine.
As I mentioned previously, this March has tremendous potential for colder and stormier than average with a blockbuster or perhaps 2, some of which we might be talking about for many years to come. Of course there’s no guarantees, but the ingredients certainly are on the table with a number of meteorological metrics (MJO into phases 8/1, -NAO, -EPO, -EPO, falling SOI, Greenland Block, rising heights in NW), all trending in their respective directions. Without going into meteorological class let’s go straight to the details for tonight into Saturday event.
My thought on Monday was that this would be a potent, yet another inland storm, but certainly larger then last one. The system is wrecking havoc down south across AL/MS and TN valley into Ohio with severe thunderstorms, tornados and flash flooding. This low heads up to the Great Lakes and then secondary low bombs off the New Jersey coast and Long Island this time creating howling winds and coasting flooding in NJ/LI (coastal flood warnings along NJ shoreline, and watches on LI south shore, along with wind advisories, and high wind warnings off the Cape). However, once again for most of NJ/NYC/LI and lower Hudson Valley, this is a nasty windswept rainstorm (in NNJ into HV, expect to hear sleet right before bed before it changes to all rain during the overnight hours).
Many March storms in the past have been blockbusters, making up for snow droughts or been some of the largest storms over the winter. At the end of my post as I’ve done a bunch of times over the years, check out the list of some the more significant snow storms March. Remember any of them??
Ok, let’s briefly discuss timing, track, type and totals for the Northeast, broken down to Tri State and New England.
Tri-State Area (NJ/NYC/Hudson Valley)
For the tri-state area precip moves into New Jersey between six and 8 o’clock tonight with heavy downpours gusty conditions. In the northern most sections of New Jersey lower Hudson Valley up to northern sections of Connecticut a slushy inch or two can’t be ruled out. In higher elevations where snow beats out the sleet 3 to 5 inches can’t be ruled out either. Most of the storm will be happening while you’re asleep. If you’re a light sleeper be prepared to be woken up along coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island where winds will be howling 40 to 50 mmph (30-40mph inland). 1-2 inches of rain expected during the overnight. Best part, the system will be long gone by the time you wake up Saturday morning. The rest of the day will be in the mid to upper 40s, overcast and breezy.
New Hampshire / Maine:
For most of New Hampshire and southwest and South Central Maine, this is your storm. Snow moves into the southwest corner of New Hampshire, moving NE between 11pm and midnight, painting the rest of the Granite State white between 2 and 4 AM. Mixing becomes an issue, especially in the southern part of NH where sleet begins to pound the pavement by sunrise keeping down totals.
This will be heavy wet snow, so please take extra care shoveling. While most of the accumulation will fall during the overnight hours into mid morning, snow showers will continue before tapering off early to mid afternoon. Totals will range anywhere from 8 to 12 inches (there will be some sweet spots over a foot further north) across most of NH and SW Maine. In areas where sleet falls, those numbers will drop by a few, but nonetheless travel will be very treacherous, especially during the morning hours.
For a brief look ahead, a clipper clips NNJ up into HV CT and SW MA Monday night into Tuesday with potentially some accumulation. Other than snow showers later in the week in the Greens and Whites, a fairly tranquil and colder than normal week. However, lurking up in the atmosphere is trouble. Recall I mentioned between 11th the 13th time frame. Let’s widen that a bit to the 15th. March madness may meander from bracket busters, to a blockbuster or 2, along an arctic blast! I did allude to this being the type of pattern that can produce a storm that you’ll tell your grandchildren about. I’ll leave it at that for now, but I will look to do a post on what old man winter is stirring up. Just please keep all your winter gear available for the rest of this month please. Those who make fun of us northerners down in the Carolinas where they say its nice and toasty, are currently suffering big time from an early plume of pollen. I guess pick your poison. That’s it for now. Those who have to shovel, again take your time so it doesn’t become your time, if you know what I mean. Stay tuned for more details on what’s setting up for a magical (or miserable) March! Do I see white clovers?? Time for nap as weather never sleeps!
