Good afternoon folks! Yes, I’m still here, and apologize for being behind the clouds this winter. Not that there’s been a whole lot to forecast to be honest. It’s certainly been a season of the haves and have nots. If you look at the chart below, with the exception of Caribou, Maine (located on the Canadian border) and Buffalo (December blizzard of 52″ certainly helped), nearly every location posted in the Northeast is well below their average snowfall totals. Especially for the I95 corridor from Boston (10.7″) to barely a trace in NYC, Philly, and AC to DC! It happens from time to time and for another post, I can go over the history and share various metrics that might surprise you.
However, winter is not over until the last flake falls. With upcoming pattern over the next 3/4 weeks, many of those in a snow drought should reach their winter averages. Unlike most of the winter, a number of metrics and ingredients in the atmosphere are all coming together to create not one but a number of bowling balls across the country. In the spirit of not making this a massively long post, I do want to cover late tonight into tomorrow morning’s first plowable snowfall of the season for the tri-state area including its track up to southern and northern New England tomorrow. I’ll break down both regions on timing and totals. Also, there are numerous threats on the table later this week and into the middle part of March which I’ll briefly cover as well. Bottom line, while the first day of meteorological spring is Wednesday, winter is in no way shape or form over, both on temperatures and snowfall. Bring on meteorological March madness!
Tri-State Area (NJ/NYC/Hudson Valley)
Ok, let’s discuss timing, track, type and totals for the area’s first plowable storm this winter, crazy at that may seem.
First of all not everyone is getting snow this time around. This will be mainly Route 78 on North special. An inch or 2, plus sleet freezing rain will ride boundary line with soaking rain further south (talk about the haves and have nots). Winter storm warnings are in effect for only Sussex Morris Passaic and W Bergen county in NJ as well as lower Hudson Valley. New York City and Long Island are under a winter weather advisory. Snow will be entering NJ from the west and traveling east, and slides into NJ currently, filling into HV, NYC and LI between 8-10pm. System tapers off throughout the morning, into early afternoon with lingering sleet/snow, especially in NNJ and HV.
Totals: Just north 78 in NJ, a general 2-4″, 4-8″ in northern parts of Sussex, Morris and Passaic counties. In Hudson Valley up the spine of 87, 4-8″ (on higher end up in the foothills). NYC and LI more of a tough call. Front end of storm could see a couple of inches but the change over to slushy sleet will keep totals down. Travel will be slow and messy for the morning commute tho so get your winter gear and shovels out tonight. It’ll be a rude awaking since most in the area haven’t seen snow since last year!
Southern New England:
Let’s talk Connecticut, Mass., New Hampshire, and Maine. For most of Connecticut and Rhode Island, including W of Worcester in MA, are under a Winter Storm Warning. For Eastern Mass including the Cape, and S New Hampshire are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory. However, counties of Strafford, and Carroll on the eastern flank in New Hampshire are under Winter Storm Warning, including W York and W Cumberland in Maine. Our system moving from the SW to the NE, into Connecticut and W MA late this evening, and into S NH during the overnight hours. This will be mainly a snow event, with the exception of the back end of the storm tomorrow bringing a mix to heavy rain along the Cape and coastal sections. Snow will be heavy at times especially for the morning commute for most of this region before tapering off early tomorrow evening. Along the south shore of CT totals will be between two and 4 inches. In the northern sections of N CT totals will be between 4 4″-8″ with isolated higher amounts which would be elevation dependent. In MA, west of Worcester, will also see a range of 4-8 inches.
In S NH / ME, from Keene to Kennebunkport, snow moves into area between 3-6am, becoming steadier and heavier throughout the morning into the late afternoon, before tapering off in the evening. Look for a general 3-5″. In Strafford and Carroll counties, from Durham to Dover on up 16 to Conway, higher amounts from 4-8″ are possible. York, Cumberland, and Sagadahoc, from Berwick to Bowdoin, may be in the sweet spot for the 4-8″ range.
Who likes bowling?? These systems will continue to roll into the Northeast folks. Buckle up. Looking at the end of week, for those with Friday night into Saturday plans, stay tuned for another, potentially more potent storm. This could also be more of an inland system but I’ll be back on Wednesday with details. I’m also sniffing out this Sunday, next Tuesday, and the March 11-13 time frame. One of these may be the type we talk about for years to come. But we’ll see. I’ll be back shortly with a lot more of my meteorological missives, short and medium term forecasts, as well as website updates. Ok, need to get this out. Stay warm, watch your backs when shoveling, and remember, weather never sleeps!