Good afternoon weather folks! I hope everyone is doing well on this coldest 3 day period in many a year. It’s certainly been a rather uneventful January, weather wise besides a few snowfalls across the tri-state area and some moderate events across New England and ski country. But that’s about to change big time over the next 2 months. To end January and flip the calendar to February, we have ourselves a major long duration Nor’easter starting later Sunday (my son’s birthday) into Tuesday (my daughter’s birthday and Ground Hog Day) for the Northeast. I do my best to stir up major winter events for the kids bdays! We have one more tranquil yet chilly day, especially in New England, with temps dropping overnight into low to mid teens across the tri-state area, single digits in the NW burbs, and plenty sub zero to below zero temps further north into ADK, the Greens and Whites! Today and early Sunday morning would be a good time to prep if need be. This will be a wide spread band of accumulating snow from Des Moines to DC, up to Doylestown to Denville, traveling to Danbury to Derry and Durham. It’s a long duration event for the tri-state area on up the Northeast to New England. The storm will bring plowable snow, sleet, heavy rain, strong winds (esp along the coastal sections), beach erosion and moderate flooding. There’s no question at this point of a major disruptive storm for the northeast is coming but the exact track on snow totals is still not certain. As discussed for years, a 50 to 100 mile East to West jog can lead to significant changes in snow fall totals. That said, there is a fairly consistent agreement across most of the models for a disruptive accumulating storm.
What we do have on table are all the correct ingredients including plenty of cold air in place, a blocking high pressure to the north, lots of energy with a screaming jet at 5,000 ft, Atlantic moisture and deepening low off shore riding up the coast. There will be the standard haves and have nots with dividing lines on significant accumulation vs lower totals with wind swept rain, especially in SENJ, eastern LI, the Cape, Boston and parts of coastal Maine. It’s a powerful and complex system! There will be enhanced banding features that will lead to narrow but high snow fall rates. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some isolated 20 to 30″ amounts. Recall the mid December storm!
Ok, lets talk details on when the fun and games begin, how long it lasts and what to expect. I’ll be fairly brief here but will be back late tonight or early Sunday morning with more specifics once I review the latest runs. The system will be traveling from the SW to NE, moving into the DC area early Sunday morning then into SNJ and the rest of NJ/NYC and tri-state area later Sunday afternoon and evening hours. Accumulations will be fairly modest with mixing and rain along the coast. Remember, this is NOT a quick hit. It’s going to last through out Sunday night and all day Monday into the evening hours. The accumulating snow will most likely fall mid-day Monday into the evening commute. It’s safe to say that I would, if possible, avoid ANY travel from Sunday night through Tuesday. There will be significant delays or cancellations and roads will be treacherous. Snow will continue its path into Southern New England later Monday evening into all day Tuesday.
Preliminary Snow Totals
Ok, let’s talk totals. This are preliminary estimates and will no doubt change, but at least it’ll give you an idea on what to expect:
DC: 4-8″ (mixing will keep totals down)
Philly: 8-14″
NYC: 8-14″ (mixing may keep totals down)
W Long Island, 6-10″, E LI 3-8″ rain/mix the further east
Boston: 4-8″ (rain mix involved along coast and the Cape)
Portsmouth: 4-8″
SENJ: SE of route 70 a slushy accumulation (subject to change)
CNJ: (Between I95 and 78/202/287) 12-24″
NNJ, NW of 202/287, 8-14″ (isolated higher amounts in higher elavations and if under bands)
Lower Hudson Valley, 4-10″
Hersey to Hazleton to Hawley, PA 12-18″ (potentially isolated higher amounts)
West to Central CT/MA: 1-6″ (donut region, little accum expected)
RI, 4-8″
West of Boston from Worcester to Tauton, 8-14″
Keene to Kingston NH 4-8″, but still high degree of uncertainty on northern edge of storm similar to the December storm. Models didn’t pick up on the higher totals then. Current global model runs (GFS and Euro) keep totals down, yet the NAM drives snow totals up for New England and the ski country. Given the pattern and past trends along with specific features with this storm, I’m leaning on the northern edge of storm creeping up.
That’s it for now. Again, I’ll be back late tonight or first thing Sunday morning to narrow down timing and totals. Btw, just a heads up looking beyond this storm, by the end of next week a fast moving cutter, driving warm and heavy rain wipes away most of this storm. HOWEVER, week 2 of February I’m sniffing out yet another accumulating snowstorm for the Northeast. Plus I like the pattern that’s setting up for the rest of February and March. If you like cold and snow storms, buckle up and grab the popcorn, fire wood and skis! If not, time to book some trips down south! Thanks for reading. Bundle up today, stay warm and remember, weather never sleeps!
