Good morning! I just wanted jump on with a very brief update to go along with your morning coffee. We’re dropping off our son at college this morning but here’s the latest on Ida, which has undergone rapid and explosive intensification overnight into this morning. As you went to bed last night Ida was CAT 2 packing winds of 105mph. As of the 7am advisory, it’s now Major strong CAT 4 with 150mph winds. Minimum pressure continues to drop to 935mb. Currently moving NW at 15mph, Ida is located 75 miles SSE of Grand Isle, Louisiana. With at least 5 to 7 hours left over the bathtub waters of the gulf, there’s still time to further strengthen unfortunately. A CAT 5 has winds speeds in excess of 156mph and minimum pressure of less than 920mb. If it reached a CAT 5, only 2 5’s have made landfall in the US in the last 29 years (Andrew in ’92 and Michael in ’18, both in FL). But honestly at this point, this is as destructive as you can get. Peak storm surge of 12 to 16 feet is forecasted between Port Fourchon and the Mouth of the Mississippi River, 10 to 18” (possibly up to 2 feet) of rainfall accumulations, along with catastrophic wind damage. Tornados are also a risk in SE LA, SE MS and SW AL.
Just to put this into context, there have been only four CAT 4 Hurricanes to make landfall in Louisiana, 2 in the 1800’s (yes hurricanes were just as destructive back then), Betsy in 1965 and Laura in 2020. Camille which was a CAT 5 came ashore in MS. As mentioned in my last post, ironically today is the 16th anniversary of Katrina which made landfall at a CAT 3. This will be an outright disaster. The NWS in New Orleans in fact has this warning which is as dire as it gets, Please understand this, there is the possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be without power for weeks”. Wow.
We’ll all be watching this unfold in the coming hours, days and weeks. Recall my early mention of some of the cyclones this season would fill the airwaves moving COVID off page 1. I’ll be back shortly with more details on Ida’s impact up in our neck of the woods. Per my initial concern on my Friday’s post, remnants of Ida will be felt later this upcoming week on Wednesday and Thursday. Flash flooding of 4 to 6” is possible for the Northeast. I’ll have all the details coming up shortly.
