Good morning folks! Hope all is well. I’ve been a bit quiet here (yet posting a lot on Twitter) since Isaias. Besides rather mundane weather this month (plenty of t-storms tho!), I’ve been crazy busy with just “run of the mill” life stuff including getting our son ready college tomorrow. Plus, its the usual “let down” after all the research, following and forecasting, late night writing blogs, and all the conversations with folks who have questions, after a major storm. Zero complaints though. It’s a pure love, passion and atmospheric adrenaline during these events to keep folks current and hopefully ahead of the point and clicks on your apps. While I have a small “voice” in the weather world, hopefully I made my point strong enough on Isaias earlier this month that winds would be strong enough inland to cause widespread power outages and you that you were prepared. Along with TS Fay earlier, I hope my point on a active hurricane season has opened a few skeptical eyes. That said, unfortunately we’re far from done folks. More in a minute.
While we’re in the latter stages of summer (can’t believe it’s almost fall!), we still have to contend with a few more days of the Triple H’s. Overall, August in the Northeast hasn’t been too bad with temps slightly above average yet with a very humid airmass (see MTD map below). Normal high/low for today: 82°F/67°F, record high/low on this date: 92°F 1916, 51°F 1923. Sunset tonight is 7:41pm, sunrise for Tuesday is 6:15am.
The Week Ahead
Today: Mostly sunny and humid with temps in the upper 80s. Look for a possible popup shower or isolated afternoon t-storm.
Monday/Tuesday: rinse and repeat for both days, a tad warmer with the mercury reaching the low 90s inland and can’t rule out afternoon storms, possibly strong to severe on Tuesday.
Wednesday is the winner of the week, mostly sunny, low to mid 80s less humid (New England drops into the 70s!).
Thursday: A sharp gradient in temps with upper 80s to low90s in the Mid Atlantic region from DC/Balt up CNJ, but refreshing 70s further north.
Friday: Still more than a few days out but possible remnants from tropical systems in the Gulf may drive wet weather our way. Look for cooler temperatures in the Northeast the first week for September!
Tropical Tidbits
While fairly well telegraphed now (unless you live under a rock, don’t care or have more important things going on), we have 2 tropical storms moving towards the Gulf of Mexico. Both will most likely make landfall along coastal sections between Galveston, TX and Gulfport, MS, early this week. A trough in the Gulf and Bermuda High are steering both cyclones NNW into the gulf where above average sea surface temps and little sheer make for very favorable conditions and will strengthen both. Here’s what we know:
Tropical Storm Marco, as of the 8am update is currently located 360 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River with 70mph winds and minimum pressure of 993mb. Moving NNW at 13mph will strengthen to CAT 1 Hurricane. Marco will make landfall first on Monday evening. A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are up from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River. The smaller of the 2 storms, it’ll weaken once inland and spread heavy rain into LA and perhaps eastern TX.
Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane Laura is a major problem. After riding over the speed bumps of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, the islands usually slow down, sometimes rip apart cyclones and alter the track, Laura will hit the warm gulf waters and will strengthen into Hurricane Monday night into Tuesday, possibly to strong 2 to a major CAT 3 Hurricane. A larger storm with tropical storm force winds extending out 140mi, As of 8am, it’s currently located 40 miles NNE of Port Au Prince, Haiti with 45mph winds, moving WNW at 18mph.
Forecasted landfall is wide and not determined yet. Earlier yesterday models were forecasting a possible hit along LA/MS coast Wednesday evening. However, the 2am runs on both the European GFS and UKMET moved Laura further west, fortunately avoiding the New Orleans area. Yet ominously, a more west track keeps Laura over water longer, allowing for further strengthening as it makes landfall near the Galveston Bay / Houston area. The hurricane models, HWRF and the HMON are further East into W LA. Plenty of runs and adjustments will been seen before knowing exactly where landfall is. For SW Florida interests, little to any impact is expected from either Storm. Stay tuned on both for more updates.
One important point, Please let me repeat from my 7/30 blog, while nothing especially in meteorology is a lock or etched in stone, for all those living or planning vacations along the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (gulf coast and WFL too), you should remain alert, especially the first 2 weeks of September (Labor Day falls on 9/7). Atmospheric conditions are quite favorable for Major landfall so have a plan and be prepared in advance. On deck is nasty Nana, and in-the-hole is ominous Omar. I’ll be on the road tomorrow and Tuesday driving our son up to college but will provide updates on any changes on track and timing.
As always with storms, if you like nearly every 3 hour updates on the details with each storm, and other entertaining weather missives, please follow my twitter page @weatherremarks (or if you don’t use Twitter, you can see my 5 most recent tweets by scrolling down near the bottom of my website). Lastly, just a shameless plug, if you happen to find my updates and blogs to be not just entertaining but actually useful to you throughout the year, please consider making a small donation of any amount. The setup is quick and easy for a nominal monthly payment up above on my menu bar under, Support Weatherremarks (Venmo is also offered). I do offer specific weather forecasts a week or two ahead, same day or even hourly, related to business trips, upcoming vacations, and future outdoor activities. Reach out to me on the menu section under, Contact Me. As always, thanks again for reading and following. That’s it for now. Time for a brief CATnap (see what I did there?). Where else can you get reliable, accurate, data packed and pun filled weather forecasts?? Oh and remember, I and weather never sleeps!
Yay! We r safe!