Good morning, atmosphere audience! Hope all is well and everyone is enjoying this early start to Fall. Temperatures have been below normal, and mostly dry except for the last few days. Colors are starting to pop, especially across southern and northern New England. As I alluded to in my post back on September 6th regarding tropical trouble lingering, the silence of the canes (hurricanes) have come to an end. Today’s topic will be the tropics. Buckle up, folks, as the last week of September and right into October, things are going to get real interesting for the East Coast, including the Gulf. In this post, we will cover the increasing threat for the southeast coast, a brief look at this weekend and next week, plus an important update on the earthquakes.
First, as of the 5am update the NHC just upgraded Humberto to Hurricane, currently located 460 miles NE of the Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 75mph, minimum of pressure of 990mb, and moving NW at 3 mph. Humberto will strengthen to a major hurricane later this weekend. However, this will not be a threat to the East Coast, as its track will be north to northeast and away from the coast.
However, it could impact the direction of what soon to be Hurricane Imelda. Currently a tropical wave will soon be a depression and strengthen to tropical storm by later today or Saturday. Currently just north of Hispaniola, its track will take it up through the Bahamas and intensify into a hurricane off the coast of Florida. As of now, there’s no threat to the sunshine state. While its exact path remains to be seen, all interests from GA to NC need to keep on eye on this. A number of meteorological gears will impact the track, timing and speed going into early next week.
Some of the media outlets have discussed the Fujiwara effect, which is named after Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwara, who back in 1921 noticed the interaction between 2 nearby tropical cyclones. A tropical tango, if you will. Depending on size, distance, and other factors, they could merge or alter one another’s track. Time will tell. But some outlets suggesting it would create a superstorm is just pure clickbait.
Speed matters here. If Imelda takes its sweet time, yes, it will be a much stronger hurricane, but it will miss its link to the cut-off low and not be pulled into the Carolinas. Humberto will likely interact and slingshot it away from the coast.
A more likely option and one I’m leaning toward is a faster track which would make it less intense, but a threat to the southeast coast. The primary impact is significant flooding along coastal sections and unfortunately inland (not what NC needs after experiencing Helene nearly a year ago). There could be a stalling feature, which wouldn’t be good either. Adding to the potential flooding issue is the deluge over the next fews days across the Carolinas. Depending on other gears to the north, there is a possibility the eventual remnants of Imelda ride up the coast later next weekend, but will address that later.
Initial Timing and Track
Again, even though we’re 4 to 5 days out, there’s still tremendous uncertainty given this complex setup. That said, folks from Emilia Island to Emerald Isle need to stay alert. But I if were to narrow the goal posts a bit, Charleston to Cape Lookout would be my target area Monday to Tuesday.
Weekend Outlook
For the tri-state, Saturday is the better day with partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 70s. Sunday trending wetter with heavy downpours especially in the morning hours, clearing later in day. Rain limited to C/S NJ and LI, though. Further north into Hudson Valley and CT it’s a dry weekend. Up in New England, it’ll be mostly sunny and seasonally warm Saturday (watch for the angry bees around the apple orchards and farms!) with temps in the low 70s. Upper 70s and partly cloudy on Sunday.
Looking out to the first week of October (wow October already!), the mercury falls to true Fall-like temps mid week. How’s 60s for highs and 40s for lows (30s in New England) sound? Dry conditions continue all week as well for the Northeast. However, I’m keeping an eye out for next weekend, especially along coastal sections. Update to come.
QuakeReMarks
Given this topic is quite sobering I’ll keep this brief. For those who don’t receive my quake text updates, I wanted to follow-up on my 3 forecast spots from my August 6th post titled, Temps, Tropics and Tremors. The first called for up to magnitude 6 between Alaska and Washington. On 9/9 a 5.8 hit just off the coast of Oregon. I was appx 250mi off but not bad!
The 2nd was for up to 7 off the SW coast of South America. On 8/21 a 7.5 hit on the southern tip of Chili.
And the 3rd spot I was looking between a 5-7 near Puerto Rico. I was appx 250mi east coast of PR but a 5.0 hit on 9/15.
Next up I’m looking for up to a 7 in Alaska in the coming weeks. By the way, I mentioned these calls not to gloat or self promote (rhyme unintended) yet to show earthquake forecasting can be done and with some accuracy as you can see. Hence again my repeated and growing concern on the Japan megaquake call. Plates continue to tighten and lack of activity between New Zealand to NE Japan is troubling. What makes this a potential 500+ yr global event is the shear size of the plate rupture which could run from Alaska down the Philippines, Japan being the epicenter. Time line is still looking like in the next 3 to 6 months, leaning before year end. Let’s leave this be for now. You can read my back comments and forecasts from my posts on 8/16, 6/1, 5/19, 3/21 and my initial QuakeReMarks post on 3/15. Just go to my website and scroll down to those archived posts. More to come.
SolarReMarks
For those who don’t follow me on X or Instagram, a recent geomagnetic storm lit up the sky yet again for Aurora’s in mid latitude areas on 9/14. I was fortunate to capture these stunning views. See below! The tweet I sent out which you can see below (you don’t need X to open), received 44,000 views.
That’s it for now. I’m headed up to the White Mountains for an Octoberfest this weekend. Cell service won’t be great, but I’ll be back late Sunday or Monday morning with an important update on Imelda. Go Yanks (and Mets), enjoy the weekend and remember, weather never sleeps!
Always the best! Thanks!
Thanks Kim!