Good morning atmospheric audience!This is a two part post which will include more details on the bone chilling air mass that we got a taste of this morning, but also the crippling ice storm coming from Dallas to Durham, NC, and it’s impact (major snowstorm) to the tri-state area and potentially further north. At this stage I’d avoid taking any specific snow map seriously. But this a powder keg of a pattern. Terms being thrown around such as crippling, destructive, just to name a few, all are justified.
I will try to be as concise as possible given the length of this post. Funny enough this system has yet to come together since a piece will be coming off the south west coast of California (which brings all the “warm” moisture) and the northern piece out of Canada adds frigid polar airmass. The combo will clash creating an utter mess along I20 starting Friday night in Texas, and over to Carolina’s Saturday, on up the Northeast corridor. The boundary line has yet to be determined and there’s a lot of maps being thrown around on social media. However, it’s increasingly likely a crippling ice storm to the south and major snowstorm to the north, is on the table. While this widespread destructive winter storm is likely, the specific timing, type, totals and track are not locked in just yet. As of now, initial thoughts are as follows.
South and North Carolina
Initial thoughts, which could change, looks like potentially a catastrophic icing event. Ice and freezing rain, moving into SC then to NC Saturday lasting into Sunday. Models will flip flop but the latest 00z Euro is printing significant ice accretion of 1-2″, albeit down a bit from the 00z. If it was 1/2 that amount, that would be a problem. Plan for widespread power outages, and major tree damage if this is the case. Not a fear statement, yet more prep for the worst hope for the best. Could be worse than the 2022 and the 2014 ice storms. Plus severe cold will hamper post storm recovery. More to come on this.
DC to Millsboro
While the GFS had trended south of euro keeping snow further south, I’m strongly leaning on a more northern track at this point. This will lead to DC receiving its largest snowstorm since 2016 of 17.8″. Initial Forecast: 6-12″. Those numbers may need to be raised. This is a late Saturday into Sunday event.
Tri-State Area
The last few runs are trending north into the tri-state later Saturday into Sunday. Way too early to iron out the details but could be a major plowable event. Similar thoughts here of 5-10″, possibly higher across the region. Snow ratios will be higher than 10-1, and powdery, given the cold. So the point and click apps on your phones can’t handle all the ingredients and moving parts. I’ll narrow down impact and timing shortly. This also is a late Saturday Sunday event as well.
NH/VT
At this point, New England is on the northern edge, but too soon to tell. However, don’t fret. There may be a 2nd low that develops that could impact New England this Sunday into Monday. This could lead to plowable accumulations of 6″ or more. For tonight, light to moderate snowfall is expected across NH/ME leading to a dusting up to an inch or 2. Possible snow squalls on Thursday.
Siberian Shivers Starts Saturday
This arctic blast will be deep and long in duration. No changes from my Sunday post, Siberian Shivers to Frozen Rivers. Please click above to read if you haven’t yet. But in short, get ready. Temperatures tank into the single digits to below zero (and dangerous wind chillls) for a number of days and will be below normal for rest of the month. The extended outlook looks below normal in February as well. This is a very dangerous situation that could cause much hardship.
After single digit lows this morning, our first taste of true Siberian air arrives Saturday morning. Look for below 0°F lows in New England (minus 10°F to 20°F wind chill), single digits down to AC to DC, plus daytime highs could remain in the single digits across the northeast!
How’s the low to mid 80s sound?? Cooler temps for the Sunshine state on its way, though. The best way to articulate what’s coming is to see maps below. I’ve included major cities near you for the next 10 days including high and low temps.
QuakeReMarks Forecast Update
As a follow up to my forecast from Sunday following the 6.0 quake off the coast of Oregon, my call for up to 5.0 quake in Southern California actually hit Monday (and was the largest California quake since 4/25)!
My second location, South Carolina hit with a 2.2 hit yesterday. Still looking for possibly in NJ as well as VT/NH/Quebec area in next couple of weeks.
SolarReMarks Update
Why I was unable to capture any Auroras in my area on Monday, I had some luck last night (see above), as the strong geomagnetic storm continued another day! There were plenty of pictures captured across the Northeast, the country and around the world. Even as far south as Australia. This was sent in from a subscriber in Bowdoin, ME!
That’s it for now. By the way, we’re not done yet. Not even close. When I said a powder keg pattern, I wasn’t joking. I’m sniffing out, dare I say the B word later next week. Oh man, stay tuned folks. Hope all this helps to keep you informed and plan ahead for these disruptive weather events. I’ll be back as we get closer and the storm gets on the map. I’ll do my best to have all the T’s (storm track, type, and totals for you new folks here), ready. Hoping for some shuteye one of these nights but doesn’t look like weather is going to cooperate as weather never sleeps!