Good morning, atmospheric audience! It was a balmy 6°F here and cold start across the Northeast (see low temps this morning!).
Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas for those who celebrate plus enjoyed the pre-Christmas snow in New England! We got the Pre Christmas storm and it was a good one! 8.4″ at WeatherReMarks headquarters, and the area targeted with higher amounts in Maine get pummeled! See Maine and NH totals below.
A subscriber sent this pic in of her buried cars in Bowdoin, ME w 15.3″!!
Due to limited time and the need to get this out first thing, I’ll be brief with our next system for the tri-state area. Per my Monday’s Pre and Post Christmas Snow post, I alluded to a Friday night storm with a sharp cut off. Well it’s a go but this is a tri-state storm this time, New England, you’re out. There’s a lot of model mayhem and forecasts floating around social media on this one. It’s a quick clipper, with snow entering New Jersey late afternoon and departing the region by Saturday morning.
The tricky part is defining where the sharp cutoff boundary is, along with a mix with heavy sleet, plus where the axis of heavy snow will be. As cold air presses SW and warm air presses NE, the line of scrimmage will move a few miles to a few counties. It’s a bit tricky on who gets the higher amounts. Don’t be surprised if there’s thunder snow under those heavy bands.
Light snow moves into the region early to mid afternoon, but really picks up between 3-6pm, and gets steadier and heavier throughout the evening. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly so if possible, avoid travel later tonight. Here’s my initial thoughts broken down by general towns, timing, and totals.
Just South of I95 from Stockton over to Sea Bright and down to South Jersey
Starts as snow transitioning to sleet and freezing rain: 1-3″ tops
Just S of I78 up to I80 from Stockton to Stanhope and towns in between (Basking Ridge to New Providence)
3-5″, some sleet keeps down totals. This area subject to higher uncertainty due to location of boundary
North of I80 in NJ (Wantage)
5-8″
NYC and 5 Boroughs
3-6″
Long Island (Woodbury to Sayville)
3-5″, higher end of range is further east into Nassau cty
Mount Kisco
6-9″
Newburgh to New Paltz over to Lagrangeville
8-12″ (higher snow ratios and fluff factor in play!)
That’s it for now. Let’s see how it all plays out. There will be plenty of over and underperformance with this storm, I can promise you that! I’ll be back later this weekend to discuss the last week of 2025, New Years Arctic blast, plus our next system for late Sunday night into Monday. Initial thoughts are for rain across the tri-state and freezing rain and ice for New England. Drive safe tonight if you need to be out. Snow will be falling at 1 to 2″ an hour making travel treacherous. A good night to hit the pillow early so you’re all rested to dig out. While you’re sleeping, the snow won’t be, because weather never sleeps!
Always spot on!
Thanks Kim!