Good morning, folks. Just wanted to jump on to give a quick but important update with more details coming later Sunday. I’m headed up to the northern edge of the White Mountains for an Octoberfest (Weather, Beer, Sports!). Who’s enjoying this stunning and refreshing cool airmass?? The Tropical wave I mentioned on my Thursday post that would eventually strengthen, is now Tropical Storm Ian (the wave off Africa formed first and was named Hermine). It looks like that track that I was concerned about which was hitting the southwest coast of Florida, moving off the SE coast and ride I95 to Cape Cod had merit. There early morning runs of the GFS (usually has a western bias) and Euro have a more western track taking Ian up into the Florida panhandle up into GA. Certainly not a lock yet, but my take is Ian travels just southwest of Jamaica by Sunday, over western Cuba late Monday to early Tuesday as a Hurricane, then rapidly intensifies into a Major Hurricane (CAT 3 or stronger) over the bath water in the southern Gulf, eventually making landfall in southwest Florida between Naples and Tampa Wednesday. While 4 to 5 days away, this should be taken seriously. Given supply issues still lingering, a storm of this magnitude will only exacerbate the problem.
After landfall, Ian will continue its path NE across Florida and into the warm SE Atlantic, where it will regain strength and intensify back to a possibly a Major. Depending on the atmospheric gears (digging trough), Ian could make its second destructive landfall into SC/NC Thursday into Friday. North of this point for all my Northeast followers, is uncertain at this time. That said, those with any travel plans towards the latter part of next week along the eastern seaboard should be prepared for possible cancellations. While there’s still some uncertainty even regarding Ian’s initial path, I would not let my guard down north of the Carolina’s. The ingredients are all there. Bath water waiting to fuel these cyclones, blocking high’s, digging troughs and tropical waves with little shear or dust, just propagating in the main development region, all lead to a late season burst of activity. But its hurricane season folks!
That’s it for now. Enjoy the weekend, especially today as some showers make their way into the northeast later tomorrow afternoon (not a all day washout though). I’ll be back with more details on track and timing later Sunday. Per my post on Thursday regarding early season flakes, take a look below on a few tweets that were sent out from Whiteface Mountain, Stowe and Mt. Washington! Ok, time for a quick nap, then up North. Just in case you forgot, remember, weather never sleeps!