Good morning weather folks! Time to talk Hurricanes again, but you knew that if you’ve been reading my posts this summer. Btw, welcome aboard to all my new subscribers over the past few weeks, and thanks so much to those who have been chatting up my website and other social media outlets. Much appreciated, you know who you are! No need to go into too much of Henri. As mentioned, it was a complex and difficult forecast, especially with its track. Besides Rhode Island being the epicenter for the number of down trees and power outages, a unique feature, yet not unprecedented was the flooding downpours across NJ ahead of Henri’s landfall. Known as a predecessor rainfall event (PRE), these are high impact heavy rainfall events usually 24 hours ahead of a tropical cyclone dumping over 4”. These outflow bands extended over NJ and parts of the tri-state area. Overall rainfall totals were impressive, 9.44” in Cranbury, 8.66” in Jamesburg, 7.01” in Long Beach Twp, 7.73” in Bedminster. 8.51” in Franklin Twp, 6.69” in Hopewell, just to name a few. Fortunately, Henri didn’t deepen and jogged further east then forecasted. It could’ve been much worse as we dodged a bullet, this time. Unfortunately, the Northern gulf states aren’t going to be so lucky as the soon to be eye of Ida will be staring down the Louisiana / Mississippi coast ironically on the 16th anniversary of Katrina this Sunday.
As of the 5am advisory, Tropical Storm Ida is located NW of Grand Cayman. Currently with 45mph winds, minimum pressure of 1001mb, and moving NW at 15mph, its forecasted track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Given low shear, a ridge placed over the Northeast and warmer than normal water temps, rapid intensification is expected taking Ida to Major CAT 3, or stronger Hurricane. Landfall is forecasted this Sunday.
While still 3 days out, models have been consistent with a LA hit. Hurricane Watches were issued last night from Cameron, LA east toward to Mississippi / Alabama border, including New Orleans. Storm surge and tropical storm watches are also in effect. Preparations should commence promptly. Besides storm surge, significant flooding and hurricane force winds leading widespread power outages are on the table.
Unfortunately, as Ida makes its way inland, while weakening, heavy flooding downpours will make its way north into Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, on up to flood-stricken Tennessee, which is the last thing they need. Heavy rain continues NE into the mid-Atlantic states middle part of next week before moving off the east coast. There is plenty of unknowns and a few days for Ida to come together but all the ingredients are on the table for Ida to cause a path of destruction, leading to the possibility of adding to list of retired “I” name storms. So far 11 “I” hurricanes have been put to rest, with Irma in 2017 being the most recent, followed by Ingrid in ’13, we all remember Irene ’11, Igor ’10, Ike ’08, Ivan ’04, Isabel ’03, Isidore ’02, Iris ’01, Inez ’66 and Ione ’55. I’ll be keeping an eye on Ida and will be posting 3-hour updates from the NHC on Twitter.
When Does the Heat and Humidity End?
Whether you like it or not, summer is ending, daylight hours are shortening, and meteorological Fall begins on September 1st. As far as when hazy, hot and humid (triple H’s) air mass ends, we have one more day to contend with across the Northeast. Temps climb back up to the upper 80s to low 90s across the I95 corridor from DC to Durham today. Oppressive dew points drive the heat index into the mid to upper 90s in spots. Fortunately, a frontal boundary clashes with our very humid airmass and beats down the heat tomorrow afternoon. This will ignite thunderstorms and slow moving drenching and flooding downpours, primarily in NJ, lower Hudson Valley, NYC into LI between 3pm and 8pm. As a result a Flood Watch was issued for most of NJ. Southern New England escapes this line tomorrow. A welcomed and much deserved reprieve from the heat, temps drop nearly 10 to 20 degrees by Saturday morning. While scattered showers will linger across the tri-state area Saturday morning, temps will top out in the mid 70s, and the low 80s on Sunday with partly sunny skies. Southern New England will be noticeably less humid with temps in the low 70s under partly sunny skies on Saturday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday also with partly sunny skies. See maps below for your area.
For the last week of August, we must deal with 2 more days of the muggy’s to begin the work week on Monday and Tuesday. Both days will see temps in the upper 80s with the risk of afternoon to evening t-storms. After the remnants of Ida impact the northeast the middle of next week, get ready for stunning, invigorating, football type conditions towards the end of next week into Labor Day weekend. Can’t wait! Sweater weather can’t come soon enough. That’s it for now. More details to come on Ida but be sure to see my frequent updates over the next couple of days on Twitter, especially if you have travel plans down south, have kids in college in the crosshairs of Ida, or just plain fascinated with tropical cyclones. Over the next week, a couple of additional waves make their appearance in the Atlantic, with Julian and Kate up next. At this early juncture, there’s no threat to the US but stay tuned. I don’t know about any of you, but I’m ready for some football, Fall weather and firepits! Thank you as always for reading and reaching out to others to follow along for my meteorological missives. We’re coming into an active time of year with more hurricane risks, seasonal transitions (Nor’easters) and my early outlook for winter coming shortly! It’s great time to jump on board! But don’t forget, weather never sleeps, especially this time of year!
