The Eye in Ian Staring Down SW Florida Coast with Devastating Impact

Good morning everyone. Ok, what have learned since my last post. First of all, here’s the current observations as of the latest 8am bulletin. Ian continues its rapid strengthening and now Major CAT 3 with maximum sustained winds of 125mph, and minimum pressure down to 950. It’s currently moving over the western tip of Cuba and on its way into the SE Gulf later this morning. It will continue to intensify to a strong 4. The overnight runs on both the GFS and the Euro have moved back east to my original track. Rather than the more western track which had Ian crawl just off the coast creating massive prolonged tidal surge and yet weakening a bit, the jog back east with a NE hit between Ft Meyers and Tamp, would likely see landfall near its peak strength strength. Don’t be surprised if Ian reaches CAT 4 (wind speeds of 131-155mph and pressure range of 920-944). But regardless of its category, models are trending in close agreement of a major hit the SW FL coast. This would be the first major hit near Tampa in 101 years. This could rival the benchmark 1921 Tampa Bay (Tarpone Springs) Hurricane which was estimated to be a CAT 3 which brought a storm surge of 10 to 12 feet.

At this point, timing on landfall looks to be Wednesday afternoon/evening between just south of Tampa Bay from Brandenton Beach to Boca Grande. But conditions will go downhill beforehand with tropical storm conditions starting tonight. Tampa down to Charlotte Harbor will be impacted by life threatening storm surge, hurricane force winds and flash flooding. Depending on its track, to the south of landfall 4-8” is possible and up to 12-20”, with isolated higher amounts north of its track. Tampa Bay may be lucky and miss significant storm surge but will get slammed with hurricane force winds and 12 to 20″ of rain. Widespread power and lengthy outages are likely. Less severe, yet as Ian travels NE across Florida widespread flooding down pours and damaging wind gusts are likely. On the current track, Ian spends Thursday into Friday racking Florida (wouldn’t be surprised is Disney closes) with damaging wind gusts and flooding downpours before potentially moving into SE Atlantic. At that point Ian moves inland across GA and the Carolinas later Friday into Saturday. Coastal sections from Cape Canaveral up to Jacksonville, Savanah, and Charlestown will have major storm surge and significant flooding. For my SE coast followers, from Jupiter to Boca down to Miami, you folks are spared the worst of Ian. Definitely not a beach day though. Conditions go down hill later today into evening. Expect 2-4”, locally higher amounts along with of 30-50mph.

Further north, remnants of Ian blow through GA, NC, and SC late Friday into Saturday with 2-4” of rain swept downpours along with 35-50mph gusts. While its only Tuesday and its track could change, I wouldn’t count on any college football this weekend down south, i.e. Clemson, Auburn, Gamecocks, Tar Heels, Seminoles, Gators and UCF, among others. Will be interesting to see what the Bucs and Panthers do. Heading up to the Mid-Atlantic states, VA/DE and potentially NJ up to LI receive some healthy downpours and gusty conditions later Saturday into Sunday. As of now, good news for southern New England on north. A strong ridge of high pressure keeps Ian away and the weekend remains cool and dry for end of season charity golf outings, Fall festivals, etc.

That’s it for now. If there’s any major changes on Ian’s track I’ll be back. I am providing updates on Twitter throughout each day with details on the current observations, including satellite and radar depictions of Ian. Follow if you haven’t yet, head to my website to see my 5 most recent tweets, or head to my FB page where I usually copy my Tweets. If you currently live on the west coast of Florida and are in one of the emergency evacuation zones, don’t be a moron and hang around because you think this isn’t a big deal. This has the potential to be top 5 event, and Ian will more than likely be retired. Thanks for reading, and good luck to those in Ian’s path. Plenty of sleepless nights coming for those in the Sunshine State, as weather never sleeps either!