The B’s are Wild: Blockbuster Blizzard Bombs Barnegat to Boston!

Good morning atmospheric audience! Woke up to a stunning winter wonderland up in New England (see my featured image)! OK, let’s get right to the main event. Recall from my post yesterday, the way we get a major plowable shut down storm with blizzard condition is to have a closed off 975mb low located at the 40/70 benchmark, and a negatively tilted trough.

Guess what, we got it. Plus, the forecasted low has deepened further to a sub 968-970mb, hence a stronger storm.

This continues the “6th year” for Blizzards too!

• 2016 Blizzard (30″ in Philly, 27″ in NYC, 18″ in Boston)
• 2006 Blizzard (27″ in NYC, 20-30″ across NJ)
• 1996 Blizzard (31″ Philly, 28″ Newark, 20″ NYC, 17″ Boston)
• 1966 Blizzard (12-18″ across NYC and NJ)

Satellites will probably capture an eye like feature given its strength (but not a hurricane). Regardless of totals this is an epic long duration major snowstorm with blizzard conditions along coastal sections, from Sunday afternoon/evening further south to very early Monday morning north, from DC to AC to NYC to ACK up to Boston (and the Seacoast in play).

A fascinating fight behind the scenes has taken place between the rather consistent and more reliable European model versus the American GFS model. Each model has its own inherent weaknesses. Typically about 5 days out GFS tends to push storms south while the European tends to move more north. It’s much more complicated than that, but in short the GFS has been very consistent with a blockbuster storm. At the same time, European has been more progressive and further east, leading to less accumulation, yet still a major storm.

On the latest 06z run this morning, a slight adjustment back west was made adjusting totals a bit higher, yet not as robust as the GFS. While GFS as well as the short term models (NAM has gone off the rails) are locked in on a blockbuster, I can’t discount the euros track. Bottom line, Sunday and Monday is not a day to travel in the Northeast.

Tri-State Area (NJ – NYC – LI – Hudson Valley)

Let’s start with timing. While snow starts across the tri-state area Sunday morning (rain in South Jersey to start), this is NOT the main event. An inch or 2 max. This is followed by a brief break before the main event arrives. Heavy snow begins in SENJ between 3-5pm, track NNE and blankets the rest of the tri-state area between 4-7pm (Hudson Valley 6-9pm).

Storm continues NE, tapering off sometime Monday morning to early afternoon. Strongest wind gusts take place approximately between 8-10pm into the overnight hours. Strongest gusts will be along the coast from 40 to 50mph (possibly up to 60mph), inland could see 30/40mph.

This will create blizzard conditions along the coast along with beach erosion, tidal flooding, along with isolated power outages, especially along coastal sections. Snow will be heavy and wet along the coast, a bit lighter and fluffier further in land. Any plans you have should be done by early afternoon as this is not the type of storm you want to be driving in tomorrow night.

Snow Totals:

This is what everybody wants to know about obviously. Bottom line, whether you get half a foot or 2 feet, it’s a lot of snow. Coastal sections of NJ and Long Island are in the bull’s-eye. I want to emphasize that depending on where that low tracks (50 miles east/west makes a huge difference) further west into NJ and Hudson Valley will see lower accumulations. Again, these are estimate wide ranges for general areas (due to continued uncertainty on low location).

DC :4-8″

AC to Asbury Park to Armonk to Amagansett (including NYC): 12″-24″

Burlington to Basking Ridge to Bloomingdale up to Beekman: 8-14″

Newburgh to New Paltz: 8-14″

New England (NH / Coastal Maine)

Timing and totals are not a lock even within 24 hours or so from the storm. As mentioned above, a 50 or 100 mile move of the center of the storm will make a major difference between 6″ to over a foot. As mentioned in my post yesterday this is not your storm for the Greens, Whites and the Loaf. Boston, SE Mass and especially the Cape will get walloped. Further north into southern NH is a wildcard. I’m likely to do a follow-up post tomorrow morning to fine-tune the details but for now here’s my initial thoughts on timing and totals.

Heavy snow will move into southern NH late Sunday night to early Monday morning, depending on track. Expect school closings. Snow rates will be 1-2″ an hour, and tapering off Monday evening.

There will be a fairly sharp cutoff on totals, especially north of Rt 101 to Rt 4. But initially thoughts south of Rt 101, from Nashua to Newmarket are 8″ to 12″, as well as from Barrington up to Bowdoin, ME. Winds will be gusting up to 25-35mph inland, up to 50mph along the coast on Monday.

That’s it for now. To prevent this from being a novel please refer to yesterday’s post for my upcoming cold temperature forecasts. Take this storm seriously. Btw, we’re not done yet! Sniffing out a clipper for Wednesday, AND dare I say a possible major Northeast storm the end of next week.

Again, I’ll be back tomorrow morning to fine tune NH / ME timing and totals, and if I see anything changes to the tri-state. Time for snooze as weather never sleeps!