Temps, Tropics and Tremors!

• Temps trending down
• CAT 5 Erin track and impact
• Seismic activity increasing

Good afternoon atmospheric audience! Hope all is well! It’s been a bit as I’ve been off the radar posting wise. It’s been an interesting summer. We went through a period of the muggy’s combined with flooding downpours to kick off June, followed by periods of warmer than normal nights in July. We opened August with the 1st 12 days of zero rain, and 5 day heat wave which was broken with flooding downpours on the 13th.

Ok, what’s next? Well, we have a lot to discuss as I have a data filled post for you! Speaking of data, check out above for a location near you, the normal high/low temps and the record high/low temps on this date. First we’ll go over the upcoming week, the rest of the month, and initial thoughts on the upcoming winter. The next topic are the tropics, specifically CAT 5 evil Erin, its track and what’s possibly behind it. Last but not least, recent earthquake activity, spots that may pop next, and increasing concerns on my Japan Mega quake call. 

Weekend and Week Ahead

For tomorrow, Sunday, we have one more warm day on hand before we get a breath of early fall refreshing air mass this upcoming week. Tomorrow temps will climb into the mid to upper 80s to near 90°F in some inland areas. It’ll be another muggy day with a dew point over 70°. However, a strong cold front will be moving in from the northwest bringing potentially strong thunderstorms across the northeast in the late afternoon to early evening hours. The latest run of the high resolution rapid refresh model has the front moving in near dusk.

A marvelous Monday is on tap with a stunning and refreshing air mass blanketing the northeast. Temps will be below normal with most spots in the 70s, dewpoint in the 50s with a northwest breeze unfortunately it falls on a workday, but beggars can’t be choosers. Temps will remain in the low 70s Tuesday and possibly upper 60s Wednesday as a front moves in to the northeast bringing showersw potentially late Tuesday into Wednesday, and possibly early Thursday.

Aside from a brief warm up next weekend, the last week of August (and the end of Meteorological Summer) is trending at to below normal temp wise! I’ll hit up my Fall forecast thoughts for a later post. But just to wet the appetite on the upcoming winter while early, there’s a number of “tells” (record low PDO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, major uptick in volcanic activity, among others) that are popping up on my radar screen that suggest it’s going to be doozy. 

TropicReMarks

The tropics have been tranquil (near record low activity in the Atlantic and Pacific to start the season), yet teetering on trouble as we have our 1st hurricane of the season. Erin has exploded from a CAT 1 to major CAT 5 in less than 24 hours. As of the 5pm update, it’s currently packing sustained winds of 160mph with minimum pressure of 915mb. Currently located 175mi NNE of San Juan, moving west at 15mph, its current track takes it west to appx 70°W before moving NW to N with no threat for the SE coast. It’ll kick a field goal between Beaufort and Bermuda by Wednesday, before continuing its path parallel to the east coast (passing the Northeast Wed-Thurs and recurving out to sea with no threat to land).

While Erin will be downgraded as it travels north along the coast, its diameter and wind field will dramatically and rapidly expand. Its shear size will stretch from Bermuda to Barnstable. Given its recent slight jog west, I wouldn’t be surprised to see tropical storm warnings to hurricane conditions for the coastal Carolinas and outer banks. 

The primary impact to coastal sections will be significant swells, life threatening surf and rip currents, beach erosion and localized flooding. The initial effects will be felt Tuesday but peaking on Wednesday into Thursday along the beaches and coasts of NJ, LI and the Cape, up to the Seacoast to Maine Thursday/Friday.

I’ll provide updates if I see any changes to its track and timing. Also, for my new subscribers I’m posting regularly on X with updates. By the way, the last Hurricane Erin was on 9/11 which was located appx 500 mi ESE of NYC. 

We’re certainly not done after Erin. Next up is Fernand which could find itself in the Gulf of America or SE coast the last week of August. See the latest European Ensemble run showing possible hits.

QuakeReMarks 

Separately from my posts here, I’ve been providing my earthquake forecasts to select followers. I hit a number of quakes including NJ, Costa Rica, Iceland and Ethiopia. There’s been a significant increase in seismic activity after the 6th largest earthquake in recorded history, a massive 8.8 that hit off the eastern coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on July 29th. That region has been hit with over 811 quakes over 4.0 since then! The quake lead to tsunami warnings for Russia, Hawaii, and even the West Coast.

Vulcanism is up big time as well. The Kamchatka 8.8 quake has triggered high pressure magma chambers across the pacific plate. Krasheninnikov erupted for 1st time since around 1600 AD! Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka has erupted, Lewotobi volcano in Indonesia blasted up 63,000 ft, and many others. Kilauea has been very active as well. It’s a bit spurious on Mt. Spurr, but a there’s been a swarm of small tremors (357 in the 30 days)!

Trigger points to north, including Alaska and south of Japan are moving. Very concerning for my Japan mega quake call (which I’ve been talking about for 2 years now) which thinking now happens in the next 3-6 months. Of course not a lock or guarantee obviously. But if it hits, it’ll make Covid look like a sneeze. A 500+ year event folks. This is a screen shot of my initial comments from my 5/6 post. I’ll be covering this more closely in the coming weeks.

For potential upcoming quakes I’m looking for up to a 6 between Alaska and Washington State, between a 5-7 near Puerto Rico around the DR and Haiti, and up to a 7, possibly higher along the SW coast of South America. 

That’s it for now. I plan on being more active going forward given we’re in a more interesting and active weather season, as we flip the page into Fall and into winter. Feel free to share my posts and have others subscribe to my site (directions are below, just copy and paste them to share with others). Oh and remember, weather never sleeps!!

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