Good afternoon! Just wanted to do a quick post for those with outdoor plans, on this afternoon’s severe weather headed our way. A classic triple H day, most of the tri-state area will have early cloudy skies giving way to partial sunshine with the mercury climbing into the upper 80s. It’ll be a soupy day with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, down right oppressive (beaches will be in the upper 70s to low 80s). However, lurking in PA and moving east, a strong disturbance will impact a “narrow” part of our region later this afternoon with a line of strong to damaging wind gusts, downpours, thunder and lightning and can’t rule out a tornado watch. When I say narrow, this line will be limited to CNJ (Trenton to Tom’s River) to the south, on up to Poughkeepsie to Providence to the north, and Morristown to Manhattan out to Montauk in the middle.
It’s a fast moving system so it’ll blow through in 20-40min. Temperatures will drop instantly into the upper 70s but the humidity will last through out the rest of the afternoon into evening hours. I can’t rule a passing shower on the backside before sunset (8:33pm), but any campfires in the evening should be dry (lightning bugs?).
WHEN AND WHAT:
Impact time will approximately between 3pm and 3:30pm starting from Basking Ridge up to Pawling, NY, reaching NYC between 3:30pm and 4pm and raking Long Island and CT, ending by 5-6pm in Montauk. If you notice the skies remaining cloudy in the early afternoon, that will limit the severity. But if the sun pops out, it’ll heat up and destabilize the atmosphere leading to stronger cells. Some of the gusts could knock down branches and trees with some isolated power outages, but not wide spread. While a low risk, a isolated tornado is possible so don’t be surprised to see a Tornado Watch issued in selected counties. A severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued as well.
For Sunday, its another hazy, hot and humid one with more sunshine then today. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s (well inland), cooler at the beaches. A shower or thunderstorm late in the afternoon is possible. That’s it for now. I’ll be updating the timing of the storm with live radar and possible video (you know I love storm chasing) on my Twitter page so be sure to check in (recall you can see my 5 most recent tweets here on my website if you don’t use Twitter, or just follow me at Weatherremarks). I’ll be back shortly to discuss the week ahead and what’s lurking in the tropics. Stay alert today folks and remember, weather never sleeps!
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