Good early Saturday morning folks! How about that winter wonderland on Wednesday? My forecasted general 1 to 4″, locally 4-6″ in higher elevations, performed pretty much as expected. In NJ, 5.5″ fell in Montague, 2″ in Morristown, 4.7″ in Middletown, NY, in CT 4.7″ in North Canton and 4″ in Storrs, in MA 5.5″ Conway and 4.5″ in Andover. But in southern VT and NH, a picturesque plop of puffy cotton balls blanketed both states. I was quite wrong with my forecast of coating up to an inch or 2. More like 3-6″, locally over 7″ fell. Keene, NH took the cake with 7.1″ and 5.9″ in Merrimack. In VT Putney received 7.1″ and 6.3″ in Landgrove. It was truly stunning outside yet short lived as warmer temps Thursday and Friday erased winters magic. Yet as forewarned on my Wednesday post, March madness continues with our next potent widespread event today.
This powerful cold front and deepening lower pressure presses east creating a myriad of meteorological mischief. Snowfall will be seen from Shreveport, LA to Sunday River, ME! Heavy rain, strong wind gusts, isolated boomers and bolts, followed by a sudden and sharp plunge in temps lead to a rapid changeover to snow. The 70s in Orlando this morning nosedive into the 30s Sunday morning, along with the teens from Baltimore to Boston, and below zero wind chills from Worchester to Wolfeboro. This plunge in temps will lead to a flash freeze creating dangerous and slippery conditions. For the Northeast, the duration from the first raindrop to last snowflake lasts 6 to 8 hours, tops. By the time most of you are up and reading this it’ll already be pouring and/or sleeting quite heavily. A rumble or two can’t be ruled out either. Most of not all precip tapers off across the Northeast before to just after sundown. Winds in the early morning hours will be whipping out of the SE along the coast, keeping temps in the mid to upper 30s for a brief time. However, they rapidly rotate out of the N to eventually howling out of the NW later (40-50mph) in the morning, throughout the day and evening. There will be a sharp gradient moving east separating the plowable to negligible regarding snow totals.
That sharp cutoff line isn’t etched in snow even at this storm approaches. Plus or minus 50 miles east or west, my approximate cutoff from the SW to NE, starts from DC to Doylestown on up 202/287 to Danbury, up I84 to Dracut, from Derry up 202 in Maine to Danforth. Of course, east of this boundary along the I95 major cities could see some snow, but mainly on unpaved surfaces. Tough call but will be fascinating to watch. Any early mix of sleet and rain west of this boundary, will quickly change over to all snow. Some areas could see 1-2″ an hour. Ok, let’s talk forecast ranges for snow totals:
DC: 2-4″
SENJ, East of I95, including NYC, LI, and E CT: mostly heavy rain with a changeover to a coating to a slushy couple of inches on grass and non-paved surfaces
C NJ: 2-4″
NWNJ: (W of 287 and N of I80): 3-6″
Hudson Valley (up the Thruway spine): 4-8″
W MA: 6-10″
RI and E MA to South Coast: mostly heavy rain with changeover to a coating to a slushy couple of inches on grass and non-paved surfaces
W NH: 6-10″, C NH: 3-6″
Seacoast of NH: 1-3″
VT: 6-10″
Sugarloaf: 6-10″
After a blustery Sunday with passing isolated snow showers, temperatures begin to moderate to more seasonal (see my almanac above for the current normal temperatures) to above normal later in the week. Don’t be surprised to see buds popping and birds chirping. Perhaps a passing snow shower in New England Wednesday but no significant precip this week for the moment. St. Patrick’s Day looks like a dandy with temps in the mid to upper 60s, and perhaps the 70s Friday. Don’t get used to this yet though. I’m still sniffing out a trough digging into the eastern part of the US the last week of March (perhaps a birthday blizzard on the 25?, yeah wishful thinking but lets see), and cold seeping into early April. We’ll revisit this shortly. Otherwise, bundle up big time for a brief and brutal blast that won’t last. Don’t forget, clocks forward tonight. Lose an hour of sleep, but lengthening daylight hours are a blessing. That’s it for now. Time for a cup of joe or a nap, because weather never lets me sleep!
