First and foremost, I want to wish to those who celebrate, a very Happy Easter and Passover. While we don’t get to celebrate as we normally would, we are all trying our best during these unprecedented times. I truly hope all of you, your families and friends stay safe and healthy.
It’s been quite awhile since my last post, mid-January in fact. Besides life in general getting in the way, we had a rather dull and mundane winter in the tri-state area. Average snowfall in New York City was just 4.8 inches versus an average of 25″. Newark received 6.9 inches with an average of 28″. Part of the reason for the below average snowfall was the well below average temps in Alaska and the configuration of the Pacific sea surface temps. Details for another day.
Let’s talk about this extremely potent storm which is currently creating blizzard conditions to the north in Wisconsin and Upper Michigan to many long tracked and very destructive EF4 and 5 tornados to the south taking place today in MS AL and TN. This system originated with a very strong low pressure system off the southern coast of California which combined with a very cold Siberian air mass, clashing with a southern flow of well above average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. A true recipe for extreme weather.
Let’s go over WHAT and WHERE to expect and WHEN.
WHAT: 2 main features of this storm for most of the east coast are strong to damaging winds AND heavy to flooding downpours (possible thunder). I can’t rule out isolated tornados in VA and PA. Wind will be the biggest impact from this event. Maximum gusts will be around 40-50mph for most of the Carolinas, DC, VA up to inland areas of NJ, Hudson Valley and most of New England. Higher gusts up to 50-70mph (isolated higher gusts) are forecasted along coastal sections of NJ, LI, the Cape, on up to coastal Maine. These type of winds historically take down limbs and trees creating numerous power outages. So be sure to charge your cell phones, laptops, etc. Besides taking in loose outdoor items, I’d also STRONGLY suggest those who’ve taken out their garage and recyclables for pickup tomorrow to bring them back in for later in the week.
In terms of rain, the heaviest will be on western side of storm with largest totals on the west side of both GA and the Carolinas, VA, central to NNJ, W LI, W MA, W CT on north. A total of 1-3″ with the usual flood prone areas most impacted, especially the south shore of Long Island.
TIMING: These are Approximate Time Frames
NJ/NYC/LI: Winds begin to pickup around midnight, intensifying around daybreak and peaking between 1-3pm (peaking between 3-6pm further NE). While still gusty on the backend, things begin to calm down around dinner time into the evening hours. Rain arrives around midnight, becoming much heavier by daybreak. Strong banding features will arrive later in the morning into early afternoon, with possible thunder and lightning in spots. We clear out late in the afternoon with peaks of sunshine (rainbow alert) into the early evening.
DC: Peak gusts between 9-12pm. Heaviest rainfall between appx 3-8am, clearing out early afternoon.
SC/SC: Western part of both states, strong line arrives between 2-4am, traveling E/NE and reaching coast between 7-9am.
Plenty of watches and warnings have been posted. In fact you can see the U.S. map looks like an Easter Basket. Most of our area is under a High Wind Warning along coastal sections, Wind Advisories further inland. After we clear out, a cooler airmass moves in across the northeast for the remainder of the week. Highs will remain in the low to mid 50s with 30s to low 40s for nightime lows (average high/low for this time of year is 60°F/43°F). There’s a possibility of some snow, yes snow, on Wednesday. Details, if needed, later.
That’s it for now on this storm. Obviously most of us are home, but if you need to travel tomorrow, take it slow. I will be more active with my posts going forward. I plan to do a brief daily forecast, a Sunday post for the week ahead and of course, detailed updates during major storms. I’ll be back later this week on what to expect for the rest of spring and more on the active “bowling ball” pattern we’re in now. Stay safe and healthy, laugh more, try not to think too far ahead, reach out to your friends and extended family regularly. We’ll get through this. Going to take a catnap. It’s going to be a late night tracking this significant, exciting, yet dangerous storm. I’m sure I’ll be eggshausted! But remember, weather never sleeps!