Happy New Year my atmospheric audience! Hope all of you enjoyed your family, friends, food, football and a fairly tranquil weather pattern. My intention was to have this out on Monday/Tuesday but life and non-weather related events got in the way. True apologies! Now most of my long time followers know I’m not the type to toot my horn, pat myself on the back or say I told you so. Forecasting weather patterns and storms are truly a humbling process. I could call a system 10 days in advance, have it reach the Northeast but be just 50 to 100 miles offshore leading to a dusting vs a blockbuster. That said, in the event that some of you missed the last paragraph from my previous post over 2 weeks ago, I’d be remiss if I didn’t repost it. “To those reading and buying into that winter is over, snow is a thing of the past, and heatwaves abound, I’d be very leery of that call. If you haven’t yet, check your furnaces, tune the snow blowers, move the shovels and scrapers to the front of the garage, and load up on firewood. Building ridges in the NW, highs over Hudson Bay, Greenland blocks, among other atmospheric tidbits are slowly forming behind the scenes and not on your weather apps.” Well, buckle up folks, it’s winter time and what a active and exciting pattern (or miserable if you hate major storms and bitter outbreaks) we have ahead us us!! By the way, total snowfall for a season is measured from the first flake to last. Similar to annual returns in the stock market, a season’s accumulation isn’t linear. Sometimes you’ll get 1 or 2 blockbusters accounting for a majority of the year’s total. Rarely do you get regular weekly and monthly equal amounts. I could go on and on with details of the past, but I’ll leave that definitely for another post.
So unless you all live under a rock, most know we have ourselves a snow event headed to our region Saturday into Sunday. It’s funny how insane social media goes berserk on posting tons of model runs and forecast totals. I guess the snow lovers have been completely starved in the mid-Atlantic states. DC had less than an inch last year, 13″ in 2021-22 (but mostly from 1 storm), and NYC eked out a paltry 2.2″ last year, all in February.
OK, let’s talk about the upcoming snowstorm for Saturday and Sunday for the mid Atlantic and southern New England. Most models now within 24 hours are in general agreement of a narrow 150 mile wide, long duration (appx 12 hours) event. Most of the accumulation will fall west of the big cities up the I95 corridor. One tricky part that’s not yet locked in yet are coastal sections along New Jersey Long Island, south shore of Connecticut and out to the Cape. This area could receive heavy rain, mixed in with sleet and strong wind gusts. Winds will be coming out of the SE to E initially, which will draw in warm sea surface temps (mid 40s), keeping snow totals down along the coast. Power outages are certainly going to be an issue with the heavy cement like snow, mixed with rain and strong winds just outside coastal sections. The further west you go from I95 the higher probability of plowable snow. This will be a long duration storm with first to last flake of 12 hours plus. Areas that will receive the highest totals look to be in NW New Jersey, Poconos, lower Hudson Valley, Western Central Mass towards Boston on up into southern New Hampshire. There will be a sharp gradient to those totals north and south of those areas.
Another feature that will create higher snow amounts in narrow areas are banding features where you could see snow rates of 1-2″ per hour! Isolating those banding features is challenging but needless to say as those SE winds begin to rotate out of the NE to N injecting arctic air, that’s when you’ll see a lot of fun and games. Over performance if under those bands could be limited to just one part of your town! Let’s take a look at timing and totals:
For the DC/Baltimore area, this is not your storm. You may see some fat flakes with a quick change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain to all rain. Precip begins between 7-10am Saturday ending by sundown. Don’t fret though, plowable snow is headed to Alexandria this winter. Safe travels to Happy Valley Sunday my man.
Tri-state area (NJ, NYC, Hudson Valley, LI)
First, let’s talk timing. For NJ, snow begins to move in from the southwest to northeast approximately noon time, ending between 8-10pm. The dividing mix line of Rt 1 from Trenton up to Tarrytown. The tricky part again is coastal sections, which will see rain to start. For NW NJ (north of 78) including Morris, Sussex, Warren, and Passaic expect 5″ to 10″. For coastal sections, it’s a rather miserable afternoon of heavy rain and sloppy mix. The height of the storm will be between 5-8pm with winds whippy up to 40 to 60mph. Can’t rule out some accumulation, but this isn’t your storm. Rumson and the rest of NJ will be blasted later this winter though! Lower Hudson Valley from Newburgh to New Paltz, 5″ to 8″. Start time, 2-3pm, ending before daybreak. Safe travels for Saturday evening bday parties, as roads will be treacherous. New York City is the challenge. However, any accumulation would be limited to non-paved surfaces, possibly very slushy slop. 1-3″ tops, but doubtful. If those banding features and wind directions change quicker than models are showing 2″ to 4″ is not out of the realm of possibility for North shore of LI and south shore Connecticut. But this is not your storm. An inch or two tops, as storm ends by daylight on Sunday.
Southern New England
Most of Saturday will remain dry, cold and overcast. First flakes will begin after nightfall, but puking snow later in the evening. Again from SW to NE the storm will be moving into western and central MA on up to southern VT, NH and Maine. The heaviest snowfall will be during overnight to early morning hours. Lighter flakes will be falling into the late morning to early afternoon, just in time for the Jets vs Pats game. For Belichick’s possible last game in New England, you gotta love the elements being involved.
Snow totals are challenge across MA, VT and NH. Gut feel on spots under bands, could produce 6-10″ which may include in W MA, the spine of Rt 7, and in E MA, from Holland to Holliston up to Bolton, north in NH from Bedford over to Barrington. There will be a sharp cutoff north of 202 in NH up to Rt 2, with 4-8″.
Hints on What’s Next….(tip re-read 1st paragraph)…,
Next up on the docket will be a powerful system Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. This is going to be a significant warm, wet and wildly windy storm. Quite similar to the 12/18 event that created washed out roads in New England and half of Maine without power. This storm, which will have blizzard conditions in the middle of the country, will stretch from Long Boat Key, FL to Lewiston, ME. A combo of mid 40s, heavy downpours, massive snow melt, strong to damaging wind gusts in excess of 40-60mph, higher along coast, will lead to wide spread power outages. This will be mild week, but won’t last as this pattern has the potential to get wild. A true arctic blast that will blanket the northwest next week with sub zero temps (will make headlines) and massive snowfall in the Sierra mountains (up to 6 to 8 feet!) will make its way towards the east coast the middle of the month. There’s a number of future bowling balls rolling towards the Northeast that have potential of one of them to be a blockbuster. Atmospheric gears that I track and that aren’t shown on your weather apps, have been hinting of this for a month now. That’s it for now. Apologies again for the late arrival, but as I said, this winter is delayed but not denied. Time for nap, and remember weather never sleeps!