Say Goodbye to Heat, Hello to Wet Weekend, Yet Not a Washout; Tropical Trouble?

Good afternoon weather folks! After taking a break from writing for a few months (I still observed, researched, storm chased and provided forecasts to those who reached out), I’m back! I have plenty to share, from timing of storms today and tomorrow, when the heat wave breaks, the 4^th of July weekend outlook, July/August outlook, and thoughts on the upcoming Hurricane season. Giving the timing, I’ll stick to just my thoughts for the next 5 days with hints on the rest, and details saved for another post. In terms of the heat dome (ridges of high pressure), which has been centered mostly over the northern sections of the US, primary in NE down to WV and north of I64 to I44 then to I40 to the West Coast, with below Normal temps south of I40 in TX to NC down to FL, we finally get a break tomorrow afternoon (see map of month-to-date temperature anomalies). Fortunately, the triple H’s (hazy hot and humid for those new to my posts), will get hammered down with a frontal boundary and an upper level trough moving southeast. A line of storms are firing up currently in C PA, upstate NY into MA VT and NH this afternoon, with another round of more wide spread storms in the Northeast tomorrow. The net result will knock all the 90s and 100s into the 60s and 70s later Thursday right through Monday. A brief pop into the upper 80s and 90s next Tuesday and Wednesday but that doesn’t last. Unfortunately, unsettled weather arrives once again during another long Holiday weekend. It’s not a wash out by any means but lets cover timing and details below.

Today Along the East Coast:

The tri-state area covering NJ, NYC, Hudson Valley, and LI is mainly spared today and tonight with isolated to pop showers and downpours after sundown from approximately 8/9pm through the overnight hours. See the forecasted HRRR model below.

However, a long line of scattered to strong thunderstorms impact mainly southern and northern New England this afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and a possible tornado warned cells up in Maine. Severe thunderstorm watches have been and will be issued for most of HV, CT, MA, RI, VT, NH and ME. Keep your eye on the sky later this afternoon into the evening hours. See the forecasted HRRR model below. You can also go to the top of my website and click onto the radar and satellite links for additional views.

Round 2 Thursday and Weekend Outlook

Thursday provided another round of showers and thunderstorms that finally break the heat. Don’t be surprised to some showers in the late morning ahead of the storms in NNJ and Hudson Valley. Unlike today, these storms will remain further south covering the tri-state area and firing up mid to late afternoon. The biggest takeaway will be the noticeably cooler temps tomorrow evening with the mercury dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday morning, and even into the upper 50s in southern New England! Unfortunately, Friday looks like mainly rain for the Northeast to kickoff the 4^th of July Weekend. As the storm system rotates off the coast, more unsettled weather continues Saturday into Sunday. Both days are not a washout for the moment but expect scattered showers with Monday looking like the best day. I will circle back with a brief post as details become clearer (pun intended).

Topical Tropics

On the topic of tropics, just a brief note. Overall, I expect another active season unfortunately as sea surface temperatures are still above normal, along with other key drivers, and especially for Northeast (possible target area this year). While 4 named storms have already formed, the total ACE index has been extremely low (Accumulated Cyclone Energy which is based on wind speed measured in 6 hour intervals during its time as a tropical storm, and takes into account duration and strength). That said, we have a another tropical wave located about 1,300 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. Conditions are favorable for it to strengthen to at least Tropical Storm Elsa (I presume there will be plenty of ice/snow memes) in the next couple of days. Its track which isn’t etched in stone, takes it near the Lesser Antilles. From there, its way to soon to forecast, but should be monitored. “Weather” this cyclone heads toward Hispanolia and either dies and/or recurves, or like some models suggest a track towards the SW coast of Florida then traveling off the SE coast, remains to be seen. I would keep an eye on this one.

Well, that’s it for now. Need to get this up and posted for you folks to read at your leisure. I thank you all again for being loyal subscribers and apologize for my lack of posts over the past few months. That said, I’m back and in case you aren’t aware, I post regularly on my Twitter page and Instagram (both Weatherremarks). Stay tuned for more updates and stay cool!! Oh yeah, and don’t forget, weather never sleeps!