Good morning atmospheric audience, hope everyone is doing well. After a rather cool end of August (and a stunning Labor Day weekend I might add), temps continue to be below average for the first week of meteorological Fall. However, heat and humidity makes its grand entrance today, creating instability and leading to severe storms later this afternoon. I’ll be discussing the timing for each location below and my thoughts on the week ahead.
Temperature’s across the Northeast rocket into the upper 80s along with a very humid air mass as dew points climb into the upper 60s to 70s (oppressive) leading to an unstable air. A strong cold front out of the northwest will slice through the northeast this afternoon creating a line of severe storms from Princeton to Portland. The main culprit will be strong to damaging winds (down trees leading to power outages possible), localized flooding, lightning, and I can’t rule out an isolated tornado. Looks like any spin ups will be limited to Northwest NJ, Hudson Valley, and western sections of Connecticut Massachusetts. But tornado watches could be issued. Models have been fairly consistent on the arrival of this line, which I will provide below for both the tri-state area and southern New England. Temperatures will drop quite rapidly as the line moves across the northeast.
Tri State Area (NJ, 5 Boroughs, Hudson Valley
For the tri-state area, it’s a hazy hot and humid Saturday with temps climbing into the upper 80s to near 90°F inland, a bit cooler along coastal sections. Keep an eye in the sky by mid-afternoon as isolated pop-ups could form ahead of a broken line through the area. Storms move in between 4-6pm and linger into the evening hours as well. See maps below for approximate timing. For Sunday, isolated showers will linger in the morning hours, but look for partial sunshine in the afternoon with temps in the 70s.
Southern New England
After early morning fog and cloudy skies sunshine should pop out heating the atmosphere across New England until early to mid afternoon. Temps and dew points will be on the rise, creating instability as a cold front arrives later this afternoon. Severe storms move in west to east with western parts of MA, CT and NH getting hit first (Keene 3:30pm to 4pm).
For the Seacoast area, from Portsmouth to Portland, line arrives between 6-7pm and lingers like a firehouse into the evening hours. Main threat are initial strong to damaging wind gusts, flooding downpours and lightning. Can’t rule out pea sized hail, and an isolated Tornado (Watches may be issued). Storm will lose some intensity near the coast. Temps plunge into the 60s within an hour after front moves through!
For Sunday, showers linger in the morning hours into the afternoon along the coastal sections before moving out before sundown. Temps will be in the 70s for most of the day.
Week Ahead (Stunning!)
For the week ahead, temps will continue their trend of below normal and little if any rain this week (possible showers Wednesday but limited to coastal sections). A classic early fall week with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s during the day, low 50s to upper 40s at night. A Canadian blast, especially in New England for the end of next week into the weekend is possible. The mercury could plunge into the upper 30s to low 40s at night!
That’s it for now. I’ll be back shortly with an update on the rest of the month, the Fall, tropical trouble lingering (silence of the canes ending), and an important quake update. Keep your eyes on the sky this afternoon and remember, weather never sleeps!
Any foliage predictions? Heading up end of September.