Good morning weather world! I know few have missed my meteorological missives since I haven’t posted since August. Like climate and weather, plenty of changes taking place for WeatherReMarks but always researching, reviewing, recording, revering and now back to forecasting and writing! It was indeed an active Hurricane season as my mid-April call had merit. While the East Coast was spared from a Major hit, the Gulf Coast states can’t say the same. And while it’s mid-November, the atmosphere doesn’t care one iota as Hurricane Iota is about to slam into Central America as strong CAT3/4 tomorrow. That said, I’ll share my thoughts on this season on a another post.
As this is my favorite time of year, season and weather wise, look for more regular posts and updates. I’ll be “brief” this morning as I wanted to give a heads-up and highlight this evenings severe weather event briefly blasting the Northeast after sundown. You may have seen the term, FROPA describe tonight’s weather, which stands for frontal passage. Essentially it’s a strong cold front leading to heavy downpours, strong to damaging winds, followed by a big drop in temperatures. However, while most of Northeast woke up to the mercury in the low 30s and down to the low to mid 20s across southern and northern New England (13°F in Saranac Lake, 16°F on Mt. Washington and 17°F in Sanford, Maine), temps do climb ahead of the front today to normal highs of mid to upper 50s (low 60s in spots)! So be sure to get outside and enjoy the sunny day as the week ahead will a chilly one!
Normal H/L: Record H/L
Portland: 48F/31F, 65F ’94, 15F ’18 Manchester: 50/34, 68 ’08, 16 ’71 Boston: 52/38, 78 ’93, 17 ’33 Central Park: 54/42, 80 ’93, 20 ’67 DC: 58/41, 83 ’93, 20 1905
WHAT TO EXPECT
Given the historical nature of these fronts, I’d advise bringing in any loose outdoor items and don’t bring out garbage pals until the morning. Winds will pickup ahead the front, gusting 20-30mph later in the afternoon, with 40-60mph gusts as the front moves through. Some branches and down trees are possible leading to isolated power outages. Areas that are prone to loss of electricity due to overhead lines and wooded areas should prep given its going to be a cold night. Aside from strong to damaging winds, this squall line will also produce heavy downpours.
TIMING
The squall line, moving east northeast reaches the tri-state area and the rest of northeast well after dark. See attached forecasted model runs on approximate timing but here’s what to expect:
- DC: 6-6:30pm
- NJ: 8pm
- NYC/Hudson Valley/W VT: 8:30-8:45pm
- C LI CT MASS E VT 9-9:30pm
- RI W NH appx 10-10:30pm
- Boston/Seacoast NH: 11:30-12:30am
For the week ahead, as mentioned earlier expect temps to be below normal and mainly dry as we step down each day with Wednesday being the coldest. That’s it for now. I’ll be back shortly with a wrap up on the Hurricane season, what to expect for the rest of November (possibly stormy Thanksgiving weekend, Nor’easter?), December (trending colder and snowier) and rest of the Winter. Enjoy the Masters (any month is awesome), the outdoors and remember, weather never sleeps!
