Potential Powerhouse Nor’easter Sandwiched Between 2 Bitter Arctic Airmasses!

Track and totals yet to be determined…

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Ok, let’s dive into the details. This is what we currently know at this point. We have a sharp trough diving into the eastern part of the US with a piece of energy riding the trough and phasing with the southern branch. We have true arctic airmass and a 1035mb blocking high pressure over the Northeast. Eventually this leads to a coastal low rapidly deepening off shore and tracking up the Northeast. Folks down in the Sunshine state, Georgia and even across the Tennessee valley better dust off their winter coats, yes, that’s right. This trough is deep enough to make Floridians think they woke up Sunday morning in New England, and Pluto on Pluto! Honestly, make sure your heat works as widespread 30s across S FL and low to upper 20s from Orlando to the panhandle, most of Georgia and the Carolinas are forecasted Sunday morning! As the low deepens the storm strengthens driving strong to damaging NE winds into the coast, leading to tidal flooding, beach erosion and power outages, along with high snow fall rates containing high ratios. In terms of general timing, while snow showers fall during the day Friday, the main event begins Friday evening in SE VA and DE into the tri-state area during the overnight hours, on north to New England through out Saturday up into Maine. Subject to change, but at this point very few ensemble members are showing any accumulations across the Carolinas, perhaps some festive flakes to couple of inches in NE NC and W NC.

What isn’t etched in snow yet (even with 3 days to go) is the specific track, hence the differences between the models. As I have brought up for many years, 50 to 100 mile jog east or west would have vastly different results of either manageable or plowable snow at this point. Model and specific model runs tend to have inherent biases which can help interpret them. The GFS has been consistent on a more east track which would lead to highest snow totals limited to the tip of LI, RI, the Cape and NE Maine, leaving the rest of the tri-state area with a couple of inches. While the GFS may be correct, I don’t buy it at this point. The latest overnight run of the Euro continues to slam the Northeast from Bethany Beach to Bar Harbor. Understand that the western edge of this storm will display a sharp gradient or cutoff in snow totals, which is yet to be determined. Initial thoughts have DC on that cutoff but will update as we get closer.

Again, while its still to early to lock in the haves and have nots, here’s a few general, yet important initial points that I see. Expect Winter Storm Watches to be issued shortly for most of I95 corridor, from DE, NJ, and the 5 boroughs, to the Hudson Valley, CT, MA, RI, NH and ME. A High Wind Watch is possible along coastal sections, and don’t be surprised for possible Blizzard Warnings to go up also along coastal sections, especially SE New England. For those who don’t know, blizzard conditions are when winds are blowing at 35mph or higher with reduced visibility of 1/4 mile along with heavy snow for at least 3 to 4 hours. Gusts between 40-60mph (possibly higher) are likely along coastal sections. Depending on the storms track, strong to damaging gusts could make its way further inland creating power outages from down trees. Given the cold airmass, snow ratios will be higher which means fluffier snow resulting in blow and drifting. The off shore low is forecasted to deepen from 994mb overnight Friday, down to approximately 968mb off of the SE coast Saturday. The strength of this powerhouse, besides creating isolated bonker bolts and “thunder snow”, could produce significant snow totals of 1 to 3 feet (with isolated higher amounts). Expect travel to come to a halt Saturday with wide spread cancellations, possibly into Sunday. The good news is snow ends across the tri-state Saturday night and early Sunday in New England. The bad news? Sunday will be down right frigid across the Northeast with temps only climbing into the upper teens to low 20s. Making matters worse, the mercury dives overnight into the single digits with wind chills of 10F to 20F below zero. Temps remain in the 20s Monday, 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday before a well deserved pop into the upper 40s to low 50s towards the end of next week. Given the probability of power outages on Saturday, this is dangerous setup. Please plan ahead of time in terms of checking generators, purchase additional firewood, or if your location is prone to lengthy power outages, plan on alternative arrangements if possible.

There’s time to iron out the details with this potential blockbuster (the second syllable being bust as there’s always a risk with these potential major storms). All the atmospheric gears need to be aligned to create a mega marshmallowed winter wonderland as in my featured picture above I took of my car buried after the March 2018 Nor’easter. It was actually posted on the main page of Accuweather.com website as well as The Weather Channel. That said, the probability is increasing for a major Nor’easter to hit the I95 corridor. Lots of media hype with plenty of model worshipping going on. I’m staying level headed here but fully anticipate updates from me over the next 24-48 hours with my forecast ranges, timing and impacts. Buckle and bundle up folks! And remember, weather never sleeps!