Good morning! First of all, “weather” you despise or you’re delighted with snowstorms, it’s only December 2nd. So let that sink in for a bit. Overall, I continue to like how this very complex multi part storm is playing out and don’t have many changes to my original thoughts from Saturday. For the most part, yesterday’s pieces fell into place as mainly rain fell to the south (upper 40s in AC) and mix precip of snow sleet and freezing rain from Rt78 on north caused numerous accidents across NJ and PA. Further north saw some impressive accumulations such as 13″ in Albany, 18″ in Saratoga Cty, 11″ in Worchester Cty, MA, 10″ in Peterborough, VT, just to name a few. As far as schools are concerned, looks like MOST have been cancelled in NNJ as expected.
Let’s discuss part 2 which impacts the northeast today in the form of mainly snow. From the NWS, the following NJ counties are now under Winter Storm Warnings until 4am Tuesday: Sussex Warren Hunterdon Passaic Somerset Morris Mercer and Bergen. What makes the forecast tricky in terms of snow amounts relates to a number of factors including the location of low pressure off our coast and its intensification as well as where deformation bands place themselves. If under these bands, you can see heavy snowfall rates of 1-3″ per hour, creating serious travel problems. But they are narrow enough where some towns could see well above forecasted totals yet the next town over have an inch or 2.
On timing, all is quiet at daybreak (perhaps some sleet or freezing rain) but don’t let that fool you. Snow makes its way into NJ from west to east between 8am and 10am, intensifying through out the morning into the afternoon. There could be some lull periods followed by heavy snowfall at times if under those bands (I will try to “nowcast” those events during the day here and on Twitter which if you don’t use, you can see my tweets on my website). It will continue to snow into the evening rush hour, tapering off from NJ to LI in the overnight hours. Unless one has to, I would strongly avoid traveling later today or expect lengthy delays (there will be plenty of fender benders). Untreated local roads will be treacherous, especially if caught under one of those bands. As mentioned on my Saturday post, there will be +/- surprises on snowfall totals. Temps will be low to mid30s most of the day with 10mph winds from the north, gusting to 25/30mph later in the afternoon. By Tuesday morning, temps will drop below freezing to the mid to upper 20s in the burbs, creating icy and slippery conditions.
That said, for the most part I’m keeping my initial snowfall totals with some upward adjustments.
SNJ: south of 195: nil to coating (isolated 1-3″)
Philly: 1-3″
NYC: 2-4″
LI: coating up to an inch or 2″ (isolated higher amounts)
CNJ: North of 195 to Rt 78, 2-4″
CNJ: North of Rt 78 to Rt 80, 4-8″ (Basking Ridge, Motown, Bville, for those who are geographically challenged)
NNJ: North of Rt 80: 8-12″
Lower/Upper Hudson Valley: 8-14″
MA: general 10-14″ with locally higher amounts (new snowfall today on top of yesterday’s totals)
Boston: 6-10″ (snowfall ending Tuesday morning)
SCT: South of Rt 84 and 2 to coast, 1-4″; NCT: 4-10″
SVT: 7-12″
SNH: 10-14″ (new snow on top of yesterday’s totals)
That’s it for now. Please take extra care if its necessary to go out today, especially later in the day or evening. Be sure to check my Twitter page (@weatherremarks) for my radar updates and other details through out the day. Or if you don’t use Twitter, no problem. You can go to my website here (if using your phone, scroll down to see my 5 most recent tweets, or if using your desktop, my tweets will be on the righthand column). I will be back shortly, as promised with both my December and Winter outlook so stay tuned. And remember, weather never sleeps!
