Top of the morning (my favorite salutation from my man Butch) atmospheric audience! A quick yet detailed heads-up for a rather miserable period along coastal sections from NC later today into the evening hours, up to VA/NJ tonight into all day Saturday, continuing to NYC LI and Cape later into the weekend. There may be a sharp cut off further north which we’ll get to in a minute.
As of the latest NHC update, the storm is located 325 miles S of Cape Hatteras with 50 mph winds, minimum pressure of 1000mb, moving N at 14mph. Will eventually be named Ophelia, but regardless if named or not its impact will be major tidal flooding, and to a lesser extent tropical storm force winds that will pound the coast for 18-24 hours. Given the warm sea surface temperatures, this low pressure system will rapidly deepen (strengthen) as it approaches land. The atmospheric gears (low pressure to the south and 1030mb high the north) will drive an easterly wind in between and directly into coast. It doesn’t help that it’ll last for 18-24 hours putting pressure on trees leading to power outages. A myriad of Watches and Warnings have been posted along coastal sections (see all below). Here’s a brief breakdown on approximate timing and impacts to NC/VA, NJ/NYC/LI, Southern New England (Cape and Islands). That said, hope you folks enjoyed the few days of stunning early fall conditions.
NC
Coastal sections of NC, which are littered with islands and sandbars with little protection (given the unfortunate topography) will see conditions head south later this morning.
The southern end of NC in Wilmington will see 2-4” and gusts of 35-45mph beginning this morning ending Saturday morning. From Morehead to Nags Head, head pounding storm surge, 50-70mph winds, and 3-6” (locally higher amounts) will lead to headline making damage and power outages.
VA
Rainbands begin to move into the Virginia Beach area early to midafternoon, ending mid-day Saturday. Much of the same elements as NC with similar flooding rainfall totals, gusts, storm surge, tidal flooding and isolated tornados. The shape of the coast with inlets and bays could see significant flooding from this event.
DE/NJ
Rainbands and strong wind gusts reach DE/SNJ coast late Friday night pounding the beaches, tapering off later Saturday afternoon with backend bands later Saturday evening. While LBI will feel the brunt of Ophelia given its SW to NE tilt, the long duration pounding of 30-50mph winds and 3-5” of flooding downpours will impact the shores of Rehoboth Beach to Rumson. Further inland, while wet and windy and will feel tropical (humidity wise, not temps as it’ll be in the upper 50s), conditions won’t be as bad. I can’t rule out a few down trees due to the saturated ground which I alluded to last week.
NYC/LI/Cape
Less of an impact further north, the south shore of LI and Cape see gusty conditions and downpours commencing later Saturday morning into the evening hours before tapering off Sunday morning. As mentioned earlier there will be a sharp cutoff in New England which according to the latest runs, takes light showers to southern NH (subject to change). Winds will top off around 35-45mph with higher gusts on eastern LI and the Cape with a general 1-3”. Unfortunately, a second round of showers and heavy downpours spread across the tri-state area on up to CT, MA, RI, VT and NH on Sunday. At least according to last nights run of Euro. Will update with any changes.
Football Follies
For all you football fans out there, from college to NFL, a number of games will be impacted by the elements of Ophelia. For the 1pm Sunday games, my Jets, the Ravens and Redskins may see some showers and downpours with some breezy conditions. Saturday won’t be pretty for host of east coast college games including UNH at Delaware, Duke at Temple, Iowa at Penn State, NM at U Mass, URI at Nova, Cornell at Yale, Bryant at Princeton, and Colgate at Holy Cross, to name a few.
That’s it for now. I’ll certainly be back shortly to share my thoughts on potentially more tropical trouble (we’re not done yet), temperature trends for the next month (look for a cooler than normal week ahead to end September and a seasonally warm start to October), and of course my outlook for the upcoming winter (think reversion to the mean for those who barely saw a dusting last year, hint: get your snowblowing tune). For those who celebrate, have a easy fast Monday. And most of all, remember weather never sleeps!