Old Man Winter Spreads Widespread Brief Blanket of Snow Tonight Into Friday AM Commute; Followed by a Slippery Sunday and a Brutal Arctic Blast Next Week

Good morning weather folks! I hope everyone had a restful and enjoyable holiday season! As we flip the calendar into the new year, so does the pattern from a mundane and mild December to an active and stormy January. The Mid-Atlantic states received rude awakening Monday as did the Northeast yesterday morning. Old man winter is finally awake from a long hibernation and he’s not happy. The DC area had its largest snowstorm since January 2019 with 6.7″ at Dulles and many locations with over a foot just south of DC on north to Maryland. Besides widespread power outages, highways (should’ve been called the Parkway) became overnight parking lots as many commuters were literally stuck in their cars for over 24 hours. Many ran out of gas with no food or blankets. The DC area typically struggles to function with just a few festive flakes, let alone accumulating snow. Here’s a life lesson. If you know it’s going to snow around DC, don’t drive, period. Or fill the tank, and pack plenty of food water, blankets, flashlights, etc.

Yesterday morning, mother nature provided a different hazard, and more dangerous element, freezing rain. Ice painted highways across NJ, Westchester on north through CT to NH created hundreds of car crashes, and trucks to jackknife leading to plenty of road closures and lengthy delays this morning. If that’s not enough, next up on the menu we have a plowable snow event traveling from the northwest to the northeast beginning late tonight. Before we get into the gory details take scan over my almanac below of selected Northeast cities (and a few others). For those who didn’t know these are the normal as well as record highs and lows on this date. If you would like me to add to the list, leave a reply at the end of my post (I also welcome questions/comments too, don’t be shy).

Ok, lets look under the hood on our next snow event. No, this is not the big one (which could be around the bend), but enough to be plowable with isolated areas that could outperform. Plus, the timing will create a challenging Friday morning commute across the Northeast. The initial low tracks and dumps its first batch of powder over KY and WV. As the secondary low moves offshore and deepens, snow breaks out along the I95 corridor from Baltimore on up the Bar Harbor. Here are the key takeaways. First, this will be all snow as temperatures remain in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout the storm. Second, the system rapidly moves over and out to sea within 5 to 7 hours max per location. 3^rd, it’ll be the fluffy type due to low dew points. Lastly, windy conditions, especially on the back end will create some drifting and a chilly clean up. Overall, most of the tri-state area up I95 to southern New England to SE NH and coastal ME will see a general 3-6”. The further west from 287 to 84 on north to 91, the lower totals can be expected (2-4”). Possible bullseye areas under banding features may be seen over SENJ, E CT, RI and SE MA.

Here’s my general forecast on approximate timing and amounts, from South to North:

DC: 2-4” beginning between 10pm-12am Friday, ends bet 3-5am

NJ: A general 3-5”, lower amounts further NW, beginning between 1am-3am (banding will lead to isolated higher amounts), ends bet 6-9am

NYC to LI: 3-5” starting between 2-4am, ends bet 8-10am

Lower Hudson Valley: 2-4” (drops off near 84), starting 1-3am, ends bet 7-9am

W CT: 2-4” /  E CT 3-6” (higher amounts further east), starting 3-5am, ends bet 9-11am

W MA: 1-3”, starting 3-5am, ends bet 9-11am

SE MA / RI: 4-8”, under a Winter Storm Warning (risk to upside IF low deepens and under snow bands), starting 3-5am, ends bet 11am-2pm. Snow heavier and wetter so careful shoving               

SE NH: Seacoast under a Winter Storm Watch, 3-6” (2-4” further west as you approach 202 to the north and west of Milford to Keene), starts 4-6am, ends bet 12pm-3pm

Coastal ME: 2-5”, also under a Winter Storm Watch (Warning in far NE coast) depending on track, may see higher isolated amounts (btw this is not your storm for the Greens, Whites or Northern Maine, 1-3”), starting 6-8am, ends bet 3pm-9pm (possible longer duration, especially along coast)

The sun will be shining early across the tri-state area come Friday morning into the early afternoon the further north you travel. Keep an eye out for a great sunset! That said, IF you don’t have to travel Friday morning, don’t. Roads will be an utter mess. Plan for airport delays as well. Again, this isn’t a major storm but will be disruptive to Friday morning’s commute. If you must travel, plan for lengthy delays. Prepare also for frigid temps on the back on the storm with overnight lows Friday into the Saturday in the teens across the Northeast (single digits up in the north country with wind-chills of minus 5F to 10F). After a tranquil yet chilly Saturday, there’s a risk of icy conditions in the NW burbs of PA/NJ, Hudson Valley, W CT, W MA, S VT and S NH on Sunday due to sleet and freezing rain (a couple of inches snow across ADK, Greens, Whites and the Loaf is possible). I’ll cover this on a separate post.

Lastly, if you haven’t checked your boilers, or are low on wood for the stoves and fireplaces, this weekend would be a great time to get ready for our coldest airmass of the season blasting the Northeast next week. Siberian shivers would basically sum it up. A few days may not get out of the teens for highs, with overnight lows in the single digits across the tri-state area. How does minus 10F to 20F below zero sound across N VT, N NH and ME, with wind chills of minus 20F to 40F below?? We’ll see if the forecast verifies but I would prep for frigid temps in advance (there’s short supply of everything these days so be sure to plan accordingly). 30s this Sunday will feel like a heatwave. Well, I’m sure you’ve had enough for now. Oh, and while you’re at it, reload on salt and shovels as we have ourselves a active and stormy pattern this month. There’s a couple of major storm threats on the horizon, with next weekend and the 18^th to 20^th time frame lurking. There’s plenty of winter weather on the table so stay tuned to my posts and be sure to get trip insurance if traveling over the next few weeks. Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need a forecast on the fly. It’s better to be prepared a few days in advance before alternative plans are too late to make. Time for some coffee. And as always, remember weather never sleeps!