Oh, the weather outside is frightful….Good morning folks! Hope everyone is well, and to those who celebrate it, Happy Chanukah! Can’t believe its the middle of December already! Who’s ready to for 2020 to end? Regardless of what is going on the world, we will always have weather to get excited and plan for! If anything, do yourselves a HUGE favor and get outside for Vitamin D and enjoy today’s mid to upper 50s (some 60’s in SNJ to DC), because we won’t see these temps for awhile. The mercury takes a major slide down this week with highs only in the 30s with overnight lows in the teens across most of the Northeast! It’s not until next Sunday into next early week do we see the 40s again.
It’s also a GREAT DAY to load up on firewood, batteries, salt, shovels and check the furnaces. Upward motion, deepening low pressure systems, arctic airmasses, and blocking highs don’t care about viruses and politics but could empty food store shelves. These are the ingredients I hinted about in my last post 2 weeks ago of a potential Mid-Atlantic mauler, which is now on the table for a major Nor’easter this Wednesday into Thursday.
Indeed a fascinating setup we haven’t seen for awhile. We still have 4 or so days to go for all the pieces to come together and who gets what is certainly not locked in as of yet. 1 key piece that was lacking on our last storm on December 5th, is the timely arrival of a true blast of arctic air. That storm did dump some hefty totals but in a narrow band from portions near Worcester, MA to spots in SW and N NH and NW Maine. The winds didn’t disappoint with a 90mph gust in Provincetown and plenty of 50 to 70mph gusts along the S New England coast. This air mass originated from the Arctic Ocean and near the North pole last Wednesday and arrives in Northern New England by Wednesday. In fact, Northern Maine will see lows of minus 5°F to 10°F, single digits further south, teens in NH and VT, and 20s in MA CT on down to NYC and NJ. Details on our potential mid week storm in a few moments, but first we have an appetizer on Monday which will provide festive flakes, some areas with accumulation while most will see rain given warmer temperatures, for now. Speaking of the mercury, here’s our updated normal high / low temps, and record high / low on today’s date.
For Monday’s system, a wave of low pressure arrives first into Mid-Atlantic States from Baltimore/DC Monday morning up to Philly NYC to southern New England. South and east of the boundary will dump mostly rain and a slushy mix to few inches to the north. This narrow band of snow for the moment looks like it travels up the spine of 202/287 from Malvern PA to Morristown, to Mahwah up to Monroe NY on up I 84 into CT and MA. Given its a morning to afternoon event, 1-3″ is possible with possible 4/5″ in higher elevations.
Ok, time to talk about the big ticket item! As mentioned, all the ingredients are on the table and most of the model runs have been consistent and in agreement (with subtle differences), with a major Nor’easter mid week. We have ourselves a big 1035 mb blocking high parked over SE Canada which prevents the storm from moving out to sea, a major blast of true arctic air ahead of the storm (key ingredient), which when combined with warm gulf moisture and low pressure deepened once off shore, creates 40-60mph winds along the coast, possible blizzard conditions near coastal sections, tidal flooding, thunder snow under those strong snow bands, and plowable snow totals. Major travel delays and possible power outages are likely. You should see Winter Storm Watches being issued at some point Monday.
While its too early hone in on snow totals, initial thoughts specific to I95 cities would be 2-5″ in Baltimore/DC area along with rain/mix period, Philly will see snow mixing to sleet/rain with 3-5″, NYC 6-12″ with mix of sleet/rain, Boston 4-8″, Portsmouth 3-6″. SENJ may see all rain. On the north side of the storm there may be a sharp gradient with a cutoff from Binghamton up I88 to Bennington, and from Brattleboro along Rt 101 to the seacoast. At the moment, I don’t see the Greens and Whites seeing much accumulation. However, minor adjustments to the location of the upper low, could move our accumulating snow line further north. Further inland out to E PA, Poconos, Catskills, C to NNJ (NW of I95), Lower Hudson Valley up to C CT and W to C MA are in the sweet spot, especially if caught under one of those snow bands creating intense upward motion, could see 8-14″ with isolated higher amounts.
As far as timing is concerned, also subject to change, precip begins early Wednesday morning in Balt/DC (typically a traffic nightmare even with a few flakes, but hopefully with less folks traveling it won’t be as bad), mid day to the later afternoon for the tri-state area (NJ/NYC), and right though the overnight hours for the rest of LI CT MA the Cape and S New England. It’s a fairly quick moving event as “throw my back out” Thursday will be filled with the sounds of snow blowers, and the beeping of plows backing up. There will be plenty model runs printing out large snow totals yet jogging back and forth, creating brief periods of euphoria to deep disappointment for snow lovers (like watching a Jets game). Where the upper level low is ultimately located will determine where those sharp cutoffs are. Currently, the Euro, which I favor, has a slightly slower and ENE track bringing that snow line into Boston on North vs the GFS a bit quicker and E. Initial heavy rain along coastal sections (including NYC and LI) change over to snow as SE winds wrap around to cold NNE). Plenty to of moving parts on this major storm.
That’s it for now. I’ll be back shortly to fine tune the timing and amounts so be sure to check your inboxes! Again, use today wisely, both to enjoy the “warmth” and prepare for upcoming week, and the weeks ahead as this storm is not a one and done. I see plenty on the table given the pattern we’re currently in, with a possible storm in 7 to 10 days and around Christmas! Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow!…..Stay tuned and as always, remember weather never sleeps!
