Old Man Winter Awakens Tuesday, but Spares Many, For Now…

• Accumulating Snow NWNJ, Hudson Valley up to NH; I95 a Nasty Raw Rainswept Event
• Snow Squalls Thursday Followed Coldest Arctic blast of Season
• Front Half of December Tracking Colder and Stormier

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and happy meteorological Winter! Can’t believe it’s December already! November turned out colder than normal and a blanket of white gold has already covered ADK, The Greens and Whites (see below). And it’s just the beginning.

For the moment, let’s quickly take a look at our first winter storm for the Northeast this season. I will say for those reading or hearing of plowable snow along the I95 corridor, the point and click weather sites and model hugger social media hypsters are wrong. For Balt/DC, Philly, NYC, LI, southern CT up to Beantown, it’s a nasty raw windswept Tuesday. Look for up to 1″ of torrential downpours starting around rush hour ending after sundown. A 12 hour soaker! If traveling around the tri-state expect delays and flooding in flood prone areas.

Now in the northwest burbs, sleet and freezing rain is possible especially near and north of 78/287. But further north in NJ near Netcong to Newton, on up to Newburgh to New Paltz, let it snow! Up to 3-6″ is possible. Elevation will play a big part on totals.

For New Hampshire, this indeed is our first plowable event south of the mountains this season. Snow begins Tuesday morning, increasing in intensity throughout the day and into the evening hours, before tapering off between 9pm and midnight across the Granite State. For the immediate Seacoast including coastal Maine, ocean influence will keep snow totals down, especially during the 1st half of storm. There will be a sharp boundary/cutoff between accumulating snow vs an inch or 2. That line cuts right through NE Rockingham county as seen by the various models below.

Further west away from the coast, from Plaistow to Portsmouth (including Exeter and Stratham): 3-6″. From Derry up to Dover (including Durham: 4-8″, and up the spine from Merrimack to Manchester on up to Murph: 6-10″.

Up next is the coldest airmass of the season Thursday night into Friday. Look for snow squalls across the northeast during day followed by temperatures tanking into the frozen abyss overnight. Check out the Friday morning lows (teens across the tri-state, single digits in New England and below zero windchills)!

That’s it for now. I’ll be back later this week with what’s lurking. This pattern is ripe with multiple storm threats (and well below temps, see below) over the next 2 weeks. Bundle and buckle up folks. Old man winter means business this winter. Quake and solar updates coming as well. Sleep well, drive safely tomorrow, and remember, weather never sleeps.