Happy Ground Hog Day, and Happy Birthday to my daughter!! And hot off the woodchuck new wires, Punxsutawney Phil confirms our continued winter forecast for 6 more weeks of winter. Moving on, as we flip the calendar from one ice box to another, this Nor’easter was worthy of quick recap given it’s impact. That was some storm that lived up to its billing! Plenty of haves, especially along coastal sections and the forecasted bullseye location, plus a few have nots on the western edges and further north. Blizzard conditions (consistent 35mph or greater winds, 1/4 miles or less of visibility due to falling or blowing snow, all lasting at least 3 hours) were confirmed along the NJ coastline as well as Providence, Westerly, Newport (lasted 9 hours and 28min continuously) and Block Island, RI, Boston (7 hours and 39min continuously), Beverly, Worchester, Hyannis, Marshfield and the Vineyard. Atlantic City broke its 1987 record for most snow in January with 32″. Old man winter is catching up in a big way, and isn’t letting up anytime soon. Let’s do quick review on my forecasted ranges. Bold are actual totals/ranges with selected attached town by town totals:
SC: mostly a dusting throughout the state, an inch or 2 in northern counties of Lancaster, Chesterfield, Marlboro
NC: Blueridge Hwy from Asheville to Boone, 5-10″, between R77 and R1 from Wentworth to Wadesboro: 1-3″ (possible thunder snow)
DC: 2-4″ (1″)
DE: Millsboro, 9-12″ (11.1″)
NJ: coastal counties from Cape May to Rumson, 12-18″ (Egg Harbor 19″, Ocean City 15.5″, Manasquan 18.4″, Pt Pleasant 17.5″); between I95 to 287/202 (Basking Ridge 5.8″) from Suffern to Stockton, 4-8″, west of 287/202, 3-5″ (High Point 5″)
Hudson Valley: New Paltz 4-8″ (?), Newburgh 3-6″ (4″), Langrangeville 3-6″ (3.5″)
5 Boroughs: 8-14″ (Central Park 8.3″, JFK 11″)
C/E LI: 12-24″ feet (the further east the higher the amounts) (Malverne 12.1″, Orient 25″)
CT: W, 5-10″; C, 10-15, E, 12-24″ (Stamford 8″, Hamden 11″, Waterford 20″)
RI: 18-24″ (Newport 21″)
MA: W, 5-10″ (Cheshire 7.8″), C 10-20″ (Worchester 14.7″), E (BULLSEYE) 18-30″ (if under mesoscale bands could see over 3 feet) (Norton 29.1″, Stoughton 30.9″, Whitman 29.5″, Boston 24.5″)
NH: SE (from Hollis to Hooksett on east, 18-24″) (Rye 13.5″), SW 8-15″ (low-end of range further west), Keene 5-10″ (7.8″), from Concord to Plymouth 6-12″ (Northfield 8.5″, Laconia 9″) Waterville 5-10″
ME: SW to SE 12-20″ with higher end of range towards NH border (Brunswick 18″), Loaf 10-15″ (9.8″), Bowdoin 14-20″ (20″)
Wind gusts lived up to its billing. See some of the top gusts on my tweet below.
Ok, time to move onto the next one. I wasn’t kidding on this being an active and cold pattern. This continues into February, potentially Big Time. Per my hint on my last post on the 28th for the period of February 5 through the 8th for the change of major storm, things are about to go down hill for the Northeast. There’s going to atmospheric war between airmasses from Texas traveling northeast to Maine. To the northeast of this boundary will dump heavy snow, a dangerous ice storm in the middle and rain to the south. This will be a travel nightmare with flight cancellations, power outages and road closures. This event begins Thursday morning as all rain as the mercury climbs into the mid to upper 40s (it’ll feel like summer after our the January ice box). But as the cold front begins to press southeast Thursday night, rain begins to mix with sleet and ice across the Mid-Atlantic and snow further north, leading to a potentially treacherous Friday morning commute. Plan for school closures, hazardous driving conditions and lengthy delays / cancellations at the airports. Strongly consider rescheduling your Friday plans to either Thursday or Saturday. The good news is all the precip moves off shore Friday night in time for the weekend, but another arctic blast arrives once again!
The precip type, track, timing, and totals are tricky. As far snow accumulations are concerned at this point, my initial thoughts would be limited to I84 from Port Jervis to Pembroke on north. The southern sharp edge of the snow line will be limited to a few inches but further snow is a different story. My hunch is the cold wins out. Surface temps are obviously cold due to the widespread snow cover. Currently there’s a Winter Storm Watch for MA VT NH and ME from Thursday afternoon into Friday night. 4-7″ is possible across the Watch area, subject to revisions. Central and Northern VT has a Winter Storm Warning up with higher possible snow totals.
Depending on the strength of the cold front, accumulating snow fall may seep further south or creep north. Sleet and freezing rain is a much bigger concern across central and northern NJ, Hudson Valley, central and northern sections of CT and south west/central MA. This potential ice storm shouldn’t be taken lightly. If the ice accumulation forecast is even half correct, the risk for down power lines in these areas are possible. Making matters worse, it’s going to be brutally cold this weekend. Temps will be in the teens across the Northeast Saturday morning and not improving much during the day. Sunday morning will be down right frigid with readings of zero to minus 10 to 15 below (that’s without wind-chill)! Temps do climb into the 20s later in the day. There’s also a risk on Sunday in the Carolinas for ice and/or snow. Here’s a peak below but I’ll be following up with you.
That’s it for now. I’ll follow up with an update later on Thursday and provide some fine tuning to the T’s (type, track, timing and totals). Temperatures do moderate a bit next week, but crash into the frozen abyss towards next weekend (again) and into mid February. The month is shaping up for one memorable run, so re load on all the winter items! The storm threats will keep coming (mid week next week, Super Bowl weekend and possible mid month around the 15th). We’ll be burrowing underneath our blankets for the Super Bowl next week! Sorry, couldn’t resist. I need some sleep, because weather never does!
I’m in Texas. Go figure.
I should use you as a data point on your future travels given you gravitate towards adverse weather!