Good morning atmospheric audience! While my Yanks are done, colder temps and subtropical events have begun! Who had extra blankets this morning? Anyone cave yet and turn on the heat? The Northeast experienced the coldest temps of Fall season so far this morning. See below lows!
WeatherReMarks headquarters hit 28°F !
Ok, onto the main event. So what’s an October without a juicy Nor’easter or Hurricane threat?? My initial thoughts on this Monday’s post regarding an increasing threat of a tropical storm off the Carolina coast, then riding up into the mid-Atlantic states this weekend, will be on the map. A complex system that’s yet to form, combines a few features (upper level trough, a stalled front off NE FL, warm sea surface temps).
It’s not hurricane, it’s not another Sandy, but this Nor’easter should be taken seriously. It’ll be a rather long duration event that will last through a couple high tide cycles, which is not good. That said, exact timing as well as track is still subject to change. So worst case scenarios splattered across social media should be taken with a grain of sand.
Yesterday’s 18z Euro pulled the low closer to the NJ/LI coast Sunday into Monday before heading south again. But early morning runs have a more off shore northern track which shaved off a bit the storms intensity. Yet more of a northern catch, which could impact coastal sections of New England. Let’s talk about the T’s: Track, Timing, Type (impact) and Totals.
Track
Beaches will take battering from Baldhead Island to Bethany, up to Brigantine, Barnegat to Belmar, on up to Bayport (LI), Bridgehampton over to Block Island, up to Barnstable to Boston. Delmarva (for those that don’t know, stands of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia) will also take a pounding. New Hampshire is on the northern edge, depending location and strength of the high. Initial thought would see gusty showers later Monday in the southern part of the state, but I’ll circle back over weekend to tighten that forecast.
Timing
For the South Carolina coast, conditions go down hill later this afternoon and NC on Saturday. As the storm creeps north and strengthens towards Delmarva, showers and downpours are possible Saturday into early Sunday across the tri-state area. There MAY be a brief break Sunday before conditions deteriorate in the evening into Monday. At this point, a tough morning commute to start the week. The low stalls off the NJ coast, rotates west then back south, before dissipating and tapering off later Monday night into Tuesday.
Type (Impact) and Totals
For coastal sections mentioned above, a combination of moderate to significant flooding, beach erosion from high surf due to persistent onshore winds, damaging gusts of 45-60mph, and 2-4″ of rain is possible.
Further inland it’s no picnic, but recent model trends suggest a big drop off rain and wind wise, relative to immediate coastal sections. Across NJ, and southern Hudson Valley could see 1-3″ with gusts reaching 30-40mph. Given a majority of the leaves haven’t fallen yet, the heavy weight makes limbs and trees vulnerable from strong gusts, especially out of the NE. Power outages are likely. Be sure to bring in any loose items, move cars away from trees and charge electronics.
That’s is for now. There will be shifting on the models and the forecast may change over the next 24 hours or so but be prepared with this one. No name Nor’easter is going to wreck havoc for coastal section for sure. Btw, cooler temps continue for October. Plus we’re not out of the woods yet. Sniffing out another deep trough over the Northeast around next weekend. A threat for more tropical trouble later this month is lurking. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some festive flakes up in the whites next week too! My next update will include new and concerning details regarding my mega quake call. If there’s any significant changes regarding this storm I’ll be back. Otherwise, have a safe weekend folks, and remember weather never sleeps.