We Continue to Fry into Late July, Oh My!
Hello folks! Hope all is well with everyone. Following up on my post from last Wednesday (anyone ready for late Fall temps or perhaps snowstorms yet?), for all you triple H lovers out there, my “Fry into mid July” forecast is being extended through most of the month with daily reoccurring risk of downpours and t-storms. Any semblance of a break in the heat, arrives perhaps the end of July into early August. If you thought this week was tough, it’s going to be a scorcher from Sunday right to end of next week as the mercury visits the 90s with the ugly muggies and plenty of isolated t-storms to chase again! The current normal high/low is 84°F/69°F, and the record high/low on this date in Central Park is 106°F in 1936 and 54°F in 1963. Sunset is 8:28pm and sunrise at 5:35am.
For Today, another Triple H day. While temps remain in the upper 80s, the sultry humidity is back as dewpoints jump into the oppressive zone, driving the heat index into low to mid 90s. Any pop up storms will be isolated to the northern burbs. We do get a much needed break from the heat Friday and Saturday but it comes at a price. Recall my concern for tropical trouble into July? While the main development region (eastern Atlantic off of the African coast) into the Lesser Antilles and western Caribbean remain dormant, in close development of subtropical to tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes can and will form, especially over the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures along the east coast I discussed last week.
Speaking of which, we have ourselves a coastal low pressure system that deepens and strengthens off the NC coast later today. Whether it gets named or not (Fay is up next) this system will make its way up the coast from Carolinas, Delmarva (which stands of Delaware Maryland and Virginia, for those who didn’t know) Peninsula, up to SENJ, LI and southern New England. The primary impacts will be tropical downpours, isolated flash flooding, strong dangerous rip tides, and windy conditions (stronger in coastal sections). Can’t rule out an isolated tornado or water spout, and some power outages. On a positive note, it’s a quick moving system so for at least the tri-state area, rain moves out by late Friday night into Saturday morning (later Saturday afternoon for New England).
For long time followers of mine, I always bring up during the winter how just a 50-100 mile east or west jog of coastal storm can be the difference between a foot or more of snow, or just a dusting. And in this case, 2-4″ of flooding downpours well inland or just some windy showers with coastal sections being mostly impacted. Where the low tracks remains to be seen, as the short term NAM model drives heavy rain well inland (and much needed in spots) while the European is further East. I’m leaning on in between solution with most of NJ, NYC, LI, Hudson Valley on north getting the brunt of the storm.
Timing and Tidbits
Rain bands make their way into SENJ Friday morning and getting steadier and heavier through out the day. While it’ll certainly feel tropical, temps remain the mid to upper 70s (ahhh, sort of…). Wind gusts along the coast will be range from 30-50mph, lower inland. If the storm is further west (NAM3km and GFS), most of WNJ from Camden up to Scranton to Syracuse get hit. Again, I’m favoriting in between which means most of NJ (lower impact further west into PA) NYC, LI, lower Hudson Valley and CT can receive 2-4″ of rain with flash flooding in the usual spots around the tri-state. The heaviest rainfall tapers off overnight Friday to early Saturday. morning.
Regardless of name or no name and east or west track, we’re “dun away” with Faye by Saturday (sorry, I couldn’t resist and if the system is named, its spelled Fay just in case anyone is paying attention). Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temps climbing back into the upper 80s (possible strong storms at night). For Sunday, into next week we’re locked into the low 90s with plenty of bad hair days. So crank the AC or head the beach or the Cape where temps more tolerable, yet still humid. Temps maybe briefly dip down into the upper 60s to low 70s for highs later next week at Lake Winnipesaukee and coastal New England as a back door front slips in.
That’s it for now. I may put out a brief post later this afternoon or evening if there’s any significant changes. Thanks so much to those who offered their support with their donations. It’s truly truly appreciated, more than you know. For those who didn’t read or get my post last Wednesday 6/30, or perhaps didn’t get down to the last 2 paragraphs, please go to the menu at the top and click on Support WeatherReMarks. For those who find my posts and forecasts informative and helpful, please consider making any donation that you feel is warranted! Stay cool, check on your neighbors and remember, weather never sleeps!
Darn