Good evening (or morning if reading this on Wednesday) weather folks! This will be a brief post, followed by more details shortly. I had planned to have an earlier post up but a new puppy and a epic road trip with my son to South Bend to see ND trounce Clemson, got in the way! Who enjoyed this forecasted warm spell so far? Honestly, for me mid 70s is a bit too warm for November. Bring on the sweater weather, crisp sunny days, chilly fire filled nights along with multiple threats of snowstorms and blizzards! Before we start talking about white gold, it’s time to talk about the topic of tropics. To follow up on my 10/29 Sandy post, I hinted on tropical trouble threatening Florida or the East Coast in the coming weeks. Well, the season isn’t officially over until the end of November, so welcome Tropical Storm Nicole to the atmospheric playing field.
As of 11pm, it’s currently located 365 mi E of the West Palm Beach with max sustained winds of 70mph, and moving WSW at 10mph. It’s track heads further west over the NW Bahamas tonight into Wednesday morning. Nicole may strengthen to a CAT 2 (possibly stronger) Hurricane as it approaches the East Coast of Florida late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is on the table. In fact, Hurricane Warning’s are in effect from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida. Storm surge warnings are also up from Boca up to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. Nicole is a large cyclone with tropical storm force winds expanding outward to 380 miles!
Landfall should will be between Boca and Fort Pierce late Wednesday night with 3-5”, locally up to 8”. A NW track takes Nicole towards Tampa later Thursday and into the NE Gulf, up into the FL Panhandle, to GA and the Carolinas, before a digging trough swings it up the East Coast, effecting the Northeast this weekend. Besides rough surf along coastal sections, a tornado outbreak is possible across GA, the Carolinas and possibly further North.
Depending on its speed, Friday into Saturday morning for the Northeast would see the brunt of tropical downpours and gusty conditions with rapid clearing for 2nd ½ of the weekend. What’s fascinating on this track is the separation between wind and rainfall. The strongest gusts will be along the coastal sections from Boca to Bar Harbor, and highest rainfall totals further inland (see the latest Euro run below).
I’ll be back to fine tune the details on track, timing and totals. By the way, get your winter gear dusted off, as the coldest airmass of the season arrives Sunday into next week. I’ll have all the details shortly. No rest of the weather weary, as weather never sleeps!