Good morning folks! Hope you all had a good week. Wow, that was some storm last Sunday. It definitely lived up to its billing, especially along coastal sections from NJ on up to Maine. Besides the big snowstorm on the west side in Ohio (counties around Cleveland received up to 25″), the east side up the coast got slammed with damaging winds (leading to plenty of power outages, especially in Mass and Maine) and flooding downpours. Rainfall was in line with forecasted amounts of a general 1-3″, along with 40-60mph winds, and higher gusts (Cape May, NJ 65mph, Blue Hill, MA 81mph, Groton, CT 64mph, Mt Washington, NH 115mph, Cape Elizabeth, ME 70mph). See below for a more complete state by state list. The Tornado concern had merit as a number of warnings were issued and 2 damaging EF0 tornadoes actually touched down in Henderson, MD and Montgomery County, PA. Ok, on to our second weekend weather event.
Looks like we have ourselves our first Nor’easter of the season which will impact and fly over the Northeast this Saturday into early Sunday further north. As the low moves NE from the gulf states and Tennessee Valley followed by the northern branch phasing with the southern branch, the system strengthens. Once it moves off the coast and over the above average sea surface temps, the low really deepens as the storm travels up and racks the east coast. While only 24 or so hours away, the devil is in the details on its exact track which will determine where and how much snow this produces. For those who’ve been following me for years know I always discuss how just 100 mile jog east or west can make the difference between flurries or a foot. There will be plenty of cold air funneled into the storm but much further north. From Baltimore to the Bronx, this is not your snow storm. Most of the tri-state area will see heavy showers and thunderstorms, isolated flooding especially along coastal sections along windy conditions. Gusts between 30-50mph are possible along the Jersey shore, LI, and up to the Cape. Rain moves into the tri-state area later this afternoon and intensifies overnight into Saturday morning before tapering off before noon.
Chilly NW winds will continue for the rest of Saturday into Sunday as the mercury drops in the 30s for highs Sunday (The Raiders can’t be happy about that but it won’t hurt them enough to lose). There’s a possibility of snow showers on the backend in the lower Hudson Valley, NNJ, and perhaps Westchester and southern CT. Depending on the track, Hallmark flurries may make it into NYC and the nearby burbs. Load up on firewood and check on your furnaces, as the week ahead will be well below normal.
As far as further north into N CT, Mass, on up to NH and Maine, its a different story. Much needed white gold to get the ski season started in NH and ME is on its way. As with Nor’easters, there’s a typically a sharp gradient where over short distances one could have plowable snow to just rain. As the low deepens off shore, especially with the very warm ocean temps this time of year, the west side and inland section have the potential for heavy snowfall combined with strong winds leading to down trees and power outages. The latest GFS and Euro runs are both in agreement in terms of a major snowstorm with the Euro approximately 50 miles further east, bringing accumulating snow to the coastal sections of Northern Mass, NH and Southern Maine.
This back and forth on the models will continue through out the day. But the general initially thinking this morning for accumulating snow would on the west side from 91 from Hartford to N NH, on the southern edge from Hartford to just north of Brockton, then on up the eastern side up the coast into Maine. A west jog would take Boston, the Seacoast and Maine coast out of the mix for plowable totals. At the moment, an 8″ to 14″ heavy snowfall is on the table within that box, from Worchester up 93 to the Whites into Maine in the bullseye. Precip begins Saturday morning traveling NE (mainly rain along coastal sections of LI and the Cape) changing over to a mix to heavy snow during the day into the evening hours. Snow will come down hard, up to 1-2″ per hour with winds gusting up to 30-40mph along the coast. Temps will remain the 30s for New England on Sunday with wind chills in the teens as those NW winds will be whipping on the backside of the storm (lucky for the Chargers they’re in sunny San Diego). Well below temps continue for the rest of week.
That’s it for now. I’ll be on the road today but will to try to do a quick update late tonight or early tomorrow if I see any major changes. For the snow lovers in the tri-state area, don’t fret. While there’s never a lock in weather, plenty of ingredients are on the table for a Mid-Atlantic mauler later this month. So as you know, stay tuned to your inboxes, and for you new subscribers (thank you for following) be sure to follow my Twitter page at WeatherReMarks (if you don’t use, you can see my 5 most recent tweets here on my website below), as well as my Instagram and Facebook page, also at WeatherReMarks. Drive safe this weekend if you need to be out, otherwise remember, weather never sleeps!
