Mid-Atlantic Mauler to Southern New England Howler! Nor’easter Means Business!

Good evening! Well, unless you live under a rock or shut off all social media (which I know a few that have), knocking loudly on the Northeast door like Sheldon Cooper, we have a major snowstorm headed our way. When its all said and done, the atmosphere is going to dump a litany, plethora, and smorgasbord of elements across our area, from heavy rain, sleet, wet and fluffy snow, strong to damaging wind gusts, thundersnow, beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding, power outages, all ending with a brutally cold airmass Friday morning (teens with single digit wind chills) and even colder on Saturday morning (wide spread single digits!). See maps below. I hope you took my advice last Sunday and enjoyed the last of the warm temps for awhile and loaded up on firewood, checked the furnace and snow blowers! It’s a classic setup yet where the smallest of changes make for dramatic differences in snow totals (btw that’s my car buried in NJ during March 2018 Nor’easter!).

Honestly, I don’t have major changes to my overall view from Sunday. The subtle jogs of the upper low, continue to impact each model run in terms of temperatures, track, sleet line and northern edge. Regardless of totals, in the end, many places in the Northeast will receive more snow then all of last winter (2019, NYC 4.8″, Newark 6.9″, Providence 11.2″). It is fascinating that while this is not a deepening storm, the models continue to print up large snow totals. I do believe there will be some disappointed snow geeks out there who are taking each model run as the golden ticket. That said, lets go over snow totals with my initial forecast from Sunday in parentheses. I will emphasize these are ranges and there’s potential to be underdone in some locations.

DC, nil; Baltimore, 1-3″ (Sunday post, 2-5″)

Philly, 2-4″ (3-5″), mixing could keep totals down

NYC, 4-8″ (6-12″), rain/sleet keeping down totals, high degree of uncertainty

W Long Island, 2-5″, E LI 1-3″ rain/mix the further east

Boston, 5-10″ (4-8″)

Portsmouth 3-6″ (same)

SENJ, east I95 from Wilmington to Woodbridge, mostly rain, some slushy accumulation possible

Between I95 and 202/287, 4-8″

NNJ, NW of 202/287, 6-10″ (isolated higher amounts in higher elavations and if under bands)

Lower Hudson Valley, 8-14″

Hersey to Hazleton to Hawley, PA 12-18″

West to Central CT 10-15″

West to Central MA, 8-12″

RI, 8-14″

West of Boston from Worcester to Tauton, 10-16″

Keene to Kingston NH 4-8″, but still high degree of uncertainty on northern edge of storm (short term model drives higher snow totals up to the ski country vs global models keeping accumulating snow further south). Will be updating on Twitter today

TIMING

Timing as been pretty consistent since Sunday. Precip from SW moving NE, arrives in DC later this morning and into NJ between 2-4pm, near sundown in NYC and LI, between 6-8pm in Lower Hudson Valley and on up to CT into MA between 9-11pm, and finally up to S VT and S NH between 11pm and 1am. Snow ends early to mid morning Thursday through the tri-state area and later in the afternoon further north into Southern New England.

You will want to be off the roads if possible tomorrow afternoon onward during the storm, especially in areas where snowfall rates can be 1-2″ an hour. Blowing and drifting will lower visibility as strong wind gusts really pick up in the afternoon into evening, make driving very hazardous. While not wide spread, be prepared for possible power outages from heavy snow on tree limbs being knocked down by 30-50mph gusts inland. Its going to be a very cold night and not fun if you lose your heat. While snow will be more fluffy the further north you go into SNE, not so in the tri-state area. Take care shoveling, bend the knees and take your time. Too many stories of heart attacks and backs thrown out.

Not too much more to add that I haven’t discussed. The devil is in the details, so we’ll see how this Nor’easter and largest storm for the Northeast in quite awhile plays out. For you new subscribers (thank you and welcome aboard!), I do update during storms on Twitter at Weatherremarks with pics and videos, live radar, initial snow totals, etc. So be sure to jump on and follow me (not on Twitter? Scroll down on my site if on phone to see my 5 most recent tweets or on right column if on computer). I may be back if I see any significant changes. After the storm I’ll be back with a wrap up of all the snowfall totals and what’s next. As mentioned this past Sunday, the 2nd half of December provides more storm opportunities around potentially Christmas and New Years. So make sure you stay tuned! Have a great day, do what you need to do this morning in tri-state area and by the afternoon further north, and smart to work remotely tomorrow if possible. Be safe, stay warm, and remember, weather never sleeps!