Good morning weather folks! Everyone enjoying the arctic blast and snow? Ready for spring yet? Regardless of where you sit on the proverbial weather fence, buckle and bundle up. No change to my previous hints on an active pattern lurking as we head deep into the dark winter months. Our over producing storm last Friday swiftly spread white gold up the I95 corridor. While some spots received a festive fluff, most of the tri-state on up I95 saw 3-6” with bullseye spots in E CT and SE MA ranging from 12-15”. NYC (5.5”) and parts of E LI (6-9”), up to RI (12”), to NH (4-7”) and Maine (3-6” with higher amount in NE country) got into the game. The Friday morning commute was certainly a predictable plight. Our deep brief arctic blast Monday and Tuesday across the Northeast meant business with plenty of new record lows recorded. Temperatures will continue to trend below normal throughout the rest of January into February. Before we discuss the Sunday into Monday storm, we have a couple of events to highlight.
First, enjoy the seasonal temps today and tomorrow where we “warm up” into in the mid to upper 40s across the tri-state to the upper 30s in S NE (festive flakes in ski country). On Friday, we have a low-pressure system moving well offshore that will graze the coastal sections of NJ and LI (a sprinkle but gusty conditions with minor beach erosion), SE and the Cape (may see a few wet flakes up to an inch or two and a possible flash freeze), and NE coastal Maine (a couple of inches). A High Wind Watch was issued for Friday morning to Friday evening for Mass counties of E Plymouth, Barnstable, the Vineyard and Nantucket. Winds will be cranking from 30-50mph (50 to 60mph is possible leading power outages).
Winds will pick up further inland across southern New England as our next polar plunge invades the Northeast later Friday night and straight into early Sunday morning. A Wind Chill Watch was issued from Friday evening to Saturday morning for NH counties of Sullivan, Grafton, Coos, and N Carroll, NH, NW/NC/NE Maine, VT, E Franklin and Berkshire county in MA, Temps will be in the single digits early Saturday morning across NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC/LI with wind chills of 5 to 10F below zero. For New England states, Saturday and Sunday morning low temps will range between 2 and 4 below zero in SNE and 10 to 15 below zero in the ski country. To make matters worse, NW winds of 15mph gusting to 30mph tank wind chills to a dangerous 20 to 40F below zero!! Indeed, this will be an indoor weekend of football, fire, food, family and friends!
And now onto our main event first hinted back on my January 6 post about this upcoming weekend on the next major storm threat. While still at least 4 days away (the main part of our storm is just entering the NW US), there’s general agreement across the long-term models of an East Coast storm later this weekend into Monday. The storm has a number of important key ingredients going for it. While Rome wasn’t built in a day, a significant amount of moisture pulled from the Gulf, coupled with a blast of arctic air, a blocking high to the northeast, and screaming lower level jet will create an atmospheric river from Rome, GA up to Rome, NY over to Rome, Maine. The exact track is not yet etched in “snow” which would dictate either all front end snow changing to rain along coastal cities to significant snowfall to the west.
Planning ahead if traveling along the east coast, while track and amounts aren’t solidified yet, delays are likely for the following: NW GA (poss 1-2”), NW SC (3-6” plus freezing rain), and rest of central SC/NC (possible ice storm, accumulating snow further west) from Sunday morning through late afternoon; VA (ice central part of state with accumulating snow to the west), DC/Baltimore (1-3” before changing over to rain) from Sunday late morning through late Sunday night; PA/NJ/NYC from early Sunday evening into overnight Monday; and Hudson Valley, NY, CT, MA, VT, NH from overnight Sunday in Monday afternoon/evening.
The overnight runs do favor an I81 Appalachian Mountain special, with spokes of snow following I87 due north, Route 7 to the Greens, and up 93 to the Whites. I95 cities on east have front end snow changing over to sleet to all rain. Coastal flooding and beach erosion may be big problem with strong to damaging SSE winds of 40-60mph (isolated higher gusts) combined astronomical high tides due to the Full Moon on Monday. The track of the storm will continue to adjust over the next few days. A number of members on the GFS ensemble cluster low pressure location’s in the sweet spot of 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude (40/70 benchmark) for snow accumulations in the big cities. This jog east would drive cold air to the coast leading to accumulating snowfall. We will have to watch the track over the next 24-48hrs to lock in where the low travels to see who’s shoveling / plowing vs planning for the next storm.
As we head further into January heights begin to build over Alaska and Greenland leading to a major deepening trough in the eastern part of US. In English, without jumping the gun, a shutdown blockbuster, ala 1993 is on the table. That’s it for now, if that wasn’t enough. By the way, for any Patriots or Bills fans out there, it’s going to an icebox in Buffalo Saturday night for the wildcard game. Kickoff temps will in the single digits, fortunately little to no wind or snow to speak of. Stay warm and stay tuned to your inboxes for further details on the precip type, track, timing and totals!
