Good evening atmospheric audience! I wasn’t kidding on my March 1st post. Maniacal March madness is locked and loaded, and before bracket busters we’ll have daffodil destroyers. From massive storms in Hawaii (3 day totals of 20″ to 30″ of flooding rains and 70mph to 111mph damaging gusts), record high temps in the southwest, to blizzard conditions across the Great Lakes (northern WI and upper Michigan could see over 2 feet of snow), our next major system barrels into the Northeast Monday.
This is a powerful cold front that will slam the East Coast with damaging winds, and flooding downpours. There’s a threat of strong tornadoes, especially in the Carolinas from Rock Hill to Raleigh to Richmond up to DC. Can’t rule out the risk, albeit lower, around Philly and parts of NJ. Bonker boomers and bolts are also possible. For the mid Atlantic states on up to New England the main threat are flooding downpours (more significant up north as major snow melt potential with ice jams) and strong wind gusts for most of the tri-state area and to a lesser extent, up to New England.
Temps will crash from the 60s down to the upper 20s to low 30s! Western side of the squall line could see snow from Rural Valley, PA to Rochester. Ok let’s go over region by region on what to expect and when.
New England
As the low deepens and rides up the coast combined with warm NW flow, downpours arrive, ahead of main line, between 6-8am tomorrow morning, tapering off between 1-2pm. Downpours pickup again between 7-8pm, ending around midnight. Widespread 1.5″ to 2.5″ possible. L
Temps will be in the upper 50s to the low 60s throughout the day before tanking into the 30s by Tuesday morning. It’ll be gusty all day with the strongest gusts late Monday of 30-40mph across MA/NH and ME. Coastal sections could see top gusts up to 50 to 60mph. Coastal flooding, power outages and major flooding due to snow melt and ice jams.
Tri-State Area
While temps spike into the mid 60s across New Jersey (50s across Long Island) waves of off and on showers and downpours will be seen throughout the morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will pickup throughout the day. The main squall line (moving west to east) steered by the potent cold front arrives between 9pm and 11pm.
Boomer and bolts, heavy downpours and strong to damaging wind gusts of 40-60mph (possible isolated higher gusts along coastal sections) pound the tri-state. 1″ to 1.5″ are possible with the usual flood prone areas vulnerable. Can’t rule out isolated power outages, as well as a possible tornado watch for New Jersey. It’ll be mighty chilly for St. Patrick’s Day! Temps tank into the 30s by Tuesday morning rush-hour (wind chills in the teens) and remain in the 30s throughout the day. Be careful for icy spots on sidewalks, driveways and parking lots. How does the 20s out the door on Wednesday sound??
DC Area
Expect off and on showers Monday as temps spike into the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will be gusting out of the southwest as the squall line and strong cold front approach. DC area will more than likely be under a tornado watch, and a threat in the mid to late afternoon. Isolated cells and t-storms between 12pm and 3/4pm. The main squall line arrives between 7pm and 8pm. Temps will rapidly drop over 30° in 3 hours. 40s by 9pm! If you’re awake may see some snow between 10pm and midnight on back end of storm. Similar to the tri-state above on cold temps Tuesday and Wednesday.
Carolinas
As stated above the main tornado threat (watches will be issued shortly) will be from Rock Hill to Raleigh and Richmond. Potential for supercells and strong tornados and large hail are possible. Not a lock but with high dew points, instability, and other atmospheric ingredients, this needs to be watched.
For the moment it looks like the main threat areas are limited to the center part of the Carolinas, but let’s see. I know not everyone is on X but that’s where I’ll posting, reposting and giving live updates. If don’t have an account, sign up and follow my account @weatherremarks. See above for approximate time line on squall line.
Like regions above, Carolinas will see temperatures tank 30° within 3 hours from near 70°F midday down to the 40s to upper 30s after dark!
That’s it for now. Will circle back this week with my outlook for the 2nd half of March into early April. That said, old man winter still has plenty in the tank. Below normal temps (with a string of warm days placed in between) and still a few shots for accumulating snow on the table. Hoping for the ceremonial birthday snow at the end of the month! Need to add to the 83.2″ at WeatherReMarks Headquarters! Buckle and bundle up folks. Spring is approaching but not for awhile yet. Time for some zzzz’s. But as usual I’m wired on weather as weather never sleeps!
Thank you for the update! We’ve had some high winds the past few days.