Good evening weather folks! Yes, I’m back again with yet another weather storm update. When an active pattern is locked in, it snows where it wants to snow. While a break in the action is inevitable, after tomorrow into Friday, as mentioned on Tuesday’s post multiple events are possible for next week and into the first half of March. Up to the plate we have our next system which for the most part will be a long duration event containing an atmospheric assault of snow, with a mix of sleet and freezing rain for good measure. Rather than another run of the mill storm, it’s a rather complex system.
In the words of the NWS Mt Holly Area Forecast Discussion today, “A strong anticyclonic upper-level jet streak will combine with midlevel differential cyclonic vorticity advection to aid in intensifying surface low pressure from the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Intense warm advection atop a low-level baroclinic zone will aid in widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of the developing low.” In sum, winter weather is headed for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast starting tomorrow morning and ending Friday afternoon. Part of the difficulty in pinpointing the various precip amounts with accuracy is the change in temps in the column or different parts of the atmosphere. A warm nose or an inversion is forecasted where temps are higher then at the surface creating mix precipitation. Considering there is still over 2 million without power in Texas, this will be a nuisance and not a very impressive event. If anything, travel will be slow during the morning and evening rush hours so plan accordingly.
Start Time and Approximate Amounts (rough estimates):
NC (Raleigh to Winston-Salem) up to VA (between I95 to I81): overnight into morning, possible significant ice event
DC: 4-6am, 2-4” plus sleet
Philly: 6-9am, 3-6” plus sleet and freezing rain
NYC: 8-10am, 3-6”, front end snow, mixing mid-day with backend snow
CNJ (I95 out to Clinton Califon and Chester up to Chestnut Ridge down to Closter): 4-8”, heaviest from late morning to early afternoon, then sleet and freezing rain, than back to snow after dark. Off and on snow squalls on Friday.
NNJ up to Hudson Valley: 10am-1pm, 2-5” through Friday, all snow
LI: 8-12pm, wide range 2-6”,snow front end followed my heavy sleet late afternoon into the evening and overnight hours.
Boston: 3pm-6pm,2-4”
SNH: 6pm-10pm: 1-4”, all snow, no mixing, which continues throughout the day Fri.
Well, that’s it for now. Look for my next update shortly on other storm threats I mentioned on my last post (this Monday/Tuesday), later next week and the potential for 1 or 2 March Nor’easters! March madness, ala colder than normal temps, and the potential for a big one is one the table (remember any of these March storms in 2018, 2017, 2013, 1993, 1960, 1958, 1956)? Travel safely tomorrow and Friday. Off to bed as weather never sleeps!
Warm nose! I like that expression.