Invigorating Airmass Arrives on 1st Day of Fall; Tropical Train of Canes

Weather never sleeps! Hello fellow weather folks, and Happy first day fall! I may have been off the radar since my last post on May 27^th but I’m always following, researching, reading and forecasting behind the scenes. I’m also active on Twitter with storm updates, providing localized reports for followers and subscribers up and down the East Coast and tweet out occasional videos and pics. With that being said, I’m back just in time for my favorite 2 seasons, which of course when weather becomes more active! This will be a packed post as there’s a lot to discuss. Besides the upcoming and timely drop in temps the next few days (think sweater weather) the hot topic is lurking trouble in the tropics! Speaking of storms, I was fortunate to meet last night, Eric Fisher, Chief Meteorologist for CBS Boston’s WBZ-TV News, who has retweeted several of my storm pics and videos over the years. He was doing a presentation on his new book titled, Mighty Storms of New England, which covers some of most destructive and epic events over the past 400 years. From hurricanes (The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, The Great New England of 1938, Carol and Edna of 1954), snowstorms (The Blizzard of 1978, which ignited my interest in weather, the Great White Hurricane of 1888, the snow blitz of 2015, among others), 1911 Heat wave, and yes, tornados. A fascinating evening, great presentation, and book which will be read on those frigid snow filled nights in front of a rip-roaring fire!

• 

• 

After a rather how hum and mundane summer in the northeast, we kick off the first day of Fall (Meteorological Fall actually begins 9/1) with a timely strong cold front bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to our region this morning into the afternoon. Out the door temps will be the upper 60s to low 70s and quite humid. From Baltimore to Bar Harbor, this line will produce some solid much needed downpours through out the day. Isolated in the early morning hours, becoming heavier and more widespread in the afternoon hours. For southern New England including CT MA NH and ME, some of these storms could be severe. Strong to damaging wind gusts (not good with fully leafed trees) and lightning are the main threats. We all dry out well before rush hour. Keep your eyes in the sky for rainbows and possible stunning sunset.

The dramatic drop in dewpoints and temperatures arrive overnight tonight so get those blankets ready. Believe it or not, some snowflakes could be flying overnight up in the Daks, Greens and Whites! You know I’ll posting about that! Be prepared for low to mid 40s across the Northeast Friday morning! As far as highs, the mercury tops out only into the low to 50s!

Plus, it’ll be blustery with strong NW winds gusting up to 40mph later Friday into Saturday. Further north into New England will receive higher gusts, leading to some down tree limbs and isolated power outages. Wind Advisories could be posted. Besides the strong trough driving these winds, gusty conditions are also due to Hurricane Fiona which remains off shore. More details on that in a moment. For the upcoming weekend, expect classic fall conditions! It’ll be mostly sunny and unseasonably cool Saturday (the morning will drop into the low to mid 40s across the tri-state area, and upper 30s across VT, N NH and N ME). Sunday will be partly sunny to start and a bit warmer with temps rising into the 70s across the Northeast, but a weak front slides in bringing some showers into the afternoon and evening hours. For the week ahead look for tranquil conditions with seasonal temps with little to any precipitation.

Next Topic is the Terrible Tropics, From Famine to Feast

Aside from forecasting blockbuster snowstorms, Hurricanes are right up there. This year is the 5^th Anniversary of Harvey, the 10^th for Sandy (seems like yesterday), and 30^th for Andrew. That’s some lineup. The 2022 season started out with little to no activity. In fact, there were no named Atlantic storms in the month of August for the first time in 25 years, and only the third time since 1961 (a year near and dear to Yankee fans). An abundance of African dust, wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the MDR (main development region) were key culprits. Also of interest is the below average activity in the Pacific, which is nearly twice the size of the Atlantic. That said, all the ingredients and atmospheric gears are in place, and the Atlantic is open for business. Let’s discuss Hurricane Fiona which originated over a week ago in the Tropical Atlantic. In its path it slammed Puerto Rico and eastern part of the Dominican Republic.

As of the latest bulletin, it’s a powerful Category 4 storm packing winds of 130mph, with a minimum pressure of 934mb. Located 485 miles SW of Bermuda, which is currently under a Hurricane warning (its track passes the island to its west tonight) is moving NNE at 13mph. Its wind field is expanding as tropical force winds extend outward to 205 miles. While it is NOT threat to the East Coast, it will produce dangerous rip tides and rough surf over the next few days. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Cape, SE Mass and S RI (and more than likely be expanded to include the NH seacoast and coastal Maine), the south shore of LI and NJ beaches.

As Fiona continues its north to northeast track and parallels our shoreline, it will rapidly accelerate speed yet keep its overall strength. Combined with above average ocean temps and an upper trough that swings down and captures Fiona, this is very bad news for Nova Scotia. While it’s a stunning visual from a satellite perspective (see below), unfortunately Fiona is forecasted to slam the Atlantic province with potentially the lowest pressure on record. This will be a truly devastating event for them, potentially worse than Juan in 2003.

The next area for concern is currently a tropical wave (invest 98L) located in the far southern Caribbean Sea. As it travels NW over the couple of days it will eventually develop into a tropical depression. Its initial track which will eventually be Hermine (or Ian if the wave off of Africa gets named Hermine first), near Cuba and possibly into southern Gulf later next week. At this point, its way too early to narrow down its direction. There’s are numerous factors that have yet to be determined and looking at one operational run does no good. IF this gets into the Gulf though, look out. Conditions are very favorable for rapid development into a major. While we’re approximately a week away from that, all interests from TX/MS/AL, the Panhandle, and yes, the West Coast of Florida should monitor this very closely. One track that I can’t rule out would be hitting the west coast from Cape Coral to Cedar Key, moving off the SE coast and ride I95 to Cape Cod. But again, there’s plenty of time and numerous outcomes to analyze before narrowing down any tracks.

We’re not yet done as there are more waves forming in the eastern Atlantic and off of Africa. “Weather” or not Hermine (or Ian) impact the East Coast, the Eastern Seaboard needs to be alert this season. Above average sea surface temperatures along our shoreline, blocking highs among other inputs lead to this concern. Well, for now that’s it, or it for now. Glad to be back. Posts will be more frequent, and shorter unless it’s a big event. Be sure to subscribe to my website so you receive my posts as soon as I send them. Careful driving later today, bundle up tomorrow morning and enjoy the crisp Fall weekend! And most of all, remember weather never sleeps!