Yet another good morning my weather folks! First and foremost, our hearts and prayers go out to all those impacted by Hurricane Ian, which looks like it’ll go down as a top 5 for Florida hits. In fact, in terms of Category 4/5 hurricanes ranked by wind, Ian (940mb) is actually tied for 4th with Charley in 2004, and the Florida Keys 1919 hurricane, all of which clocked in at 150mph at landfall. At # 3 is Michael in 2018 at 160mph (919mb), # 2 is Andrew in 1992 at 165mph (922mb) and at #1 is the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 185mph (892mb). Ian was truly a devastating event. The pictures and videos that littered social media were staggering. As of last night, nearly 2.6 million are without power. As the sun rises and the flood waters recede, little will be shining as Florida as a long road ahead for them. In the spirit of time, and preventing this post from becoming a mini novel, I’ll reserve a separate Ian summary writeup for another time. Besides, Ian ain’t leavin’ just yet. Not on the same magnitude, but it has plans for the southeast coast which I alluded to as a risk in my past 2 posts. Let’s deal with GA/SC/NC regarding timing, track and totals first, then discuss the tri-state area (NJ/Hudson Valley/NYC/LI/S CT for those who were always curious by what I meant).
Later today, a weakened Ian (downgraded to a tropical storm as it traveled over land the past 16 hours or so) continues its NE track and will be thirsty for the warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic. Once over water later today, Ian will again intensify to potentially hurricane strength, where it’ll have 24 hours over the bath water to get its act together. Conditions go downhill later tonight along the SE coast from Jacksonville, SC, and to a lesser extent up to Myrtle Beach. Ian eventually turns NW and makes its 2nd landfall into the SC coast midday on Friday. Tropical Storm, Storm Surge, and Hurricane Watches are already in effect for the GA and SC coastline. Coastal areas such as Savanah on up to Charleston and Hilton Head are going to get hit hard with tidal surge, urban and flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, major beach erosion, river overflows (Charleston typically floods during an afternoon thunderstorm). Damaging wind gusts could top out between 60-80mph (higher in isolated locations), and up to 5-10″ of rain. Storm surge, depending on strength and landfall could reach 5-10 feet. Power outages and damage to some structures are likely, along with a few tornados. Further inland towards Columbia, SC, gusts of 30-50mph and 3-5″ are possible, less of an impact towards Greer, yet not totally in the clear. Similar conditions west of the Research Triangle near Winston-Salem.
Further north from Myrtle to Holden Beach north to Cape Point, to a lesser of a degree but will be impacted by storm surge, tidal flooding, beach erosion, and isolated tornados from feeder bands. Power outages are likely and clean up certainly will be lengthy with a long road ahead. Especially given the significant damage across Florida, enormous demand will be through the roof (pun intended) across the entire southeast. While much improved over the past year, there’s still tremendous stress on supply chains and Ian’s path of significant damage will dramatically lengthen the recovery time. That said, conditions materially improve from SE to NW late Friday night into the early morning hours Saturday.
Ok, onto the tri-state area. The remnants of Ian make its way into DC/DE late Friday night, and into NJ, NYC and LI, perhaps coastal CT, beginning Saturday morning, tapering off later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A solid 1-3” is expected with higher end of the range along coastal sections. It’ll be gusty and very humid (you’ll notice and feel the tropical air, and car and house windows will be fogged up). Given a ridge of high pressure over New England, there will be sharp cut off on precip up in the Upper Hudson Valley cutting across to C/N CT on north. North of 84/90 should be mainly dry, outside of a sprinkle to two, this weekend. For Sunday, the morning hours look dry yet overcast with temps hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s. Showers and downpours are possible starting in the afternoon. Winds pickup out of the East starting in the early afternoon into the evening hours, gusting up to 50mph on eastern LI, SENJ, possibly up to the Cape and Boston. A mini Mid-Atlantic Mauler (modest Nor’easter) may impact coastal sections of NJ, LI, Cape Cod, the Seacoast up to southern and midcoast Maine Sunday night into late Tuesday. I’ll be back with details if necessary.
Alrighty, that is it for now. It’s been a long week, but I have zero to complain about considering the unfortunate circumstances of millions in FL and eventually in GA/SC/NC coastal sections. I love weather, the science, the power of mother nature, the technology used to help forecast extreme events and ultimately sharing my thoughts and advice to all of you. I am humbled and grateful to those who appreciate my forecasts, read my posts, and ask for my opinion. It’s a true passion that continues to grow and I’m thankful you are on board for the journey. And with that said, for those who haven’t see some of the crazy videos, I attached a bunch of tweets below. Oh, I almost forgot, I must remember, that weather never sleeps!