Hybrid Henri Howler! Nor’easter Will Paint Backyards with Wet Leaves and Deciduous Trees!

Good morning weather folks! Well, its the beginning of my favorite time of the year, filled with plenty to forecast and write about. Days are getting shorter (daylight wise for those wise guys), temperatures are dropping as well as fading colored filled leaves, leading to rumors of Nor’easters and major snow storms. I hope everyone truly enjoyed the mundane and warm October because Sunday’s frozen blast was foreshadowing of an early start to winter this November (into December). October tends to historically be the month of transition, with volatility not only in the financial markets but the atmosphere as well. An active stormy pattern over the next few weeks kicks into high gear later tonight. A potent Nor’easter is headed to the East Coast which could have a significant impact especially along coastal sections. All the gory details shortly.

First, how did everyone feel Sunday morning?? Temps across the region were definitely the coldest airmass of the season. The mercury painted a wide swath of 30s across most NE states with plenty of 20s popping up. Some of the usual ice box locations didn’t disappoint with Mt Washington taking the cake with 14F, Saranac Lake 25F and Keene NH at 27F. See lows below. In NJ, Basking Ridge came in with the low of the morning at 33F as it usually does due to radiational cooling (but given the location of the station in the Great Swamp and away from the majority of town’s population, it’s not useful other than bragging rights). See below the low temps across the region and my select cities daily and record highs and lows.

Ok, on to the main event. Unless you live under a rock, are completely avoiding the news (and more specifically weather updates), we have ourselves a classic October Nor’easter. This will produce hurricane force winds along coastal sections of southern New England, flash flooding, and power outages. I did want to give everyone a heads up who may be in its path to be thoroughly prepared and not be caught by surprised or “I didn’t know this was coming, no one talked about it”, etc. etc.). Yes I have a small bull horn here, yet I have loyal long term subscribers who can also get the word out and get others on board to what may be a very active November and December, and quick start to the winter season. That said, a developing low pressure system is centered off the Eastern seaboard tonight into Wednesday. This deepening feature is influenced by a blocking high to the north, above normal sea surface temps off the NE coast and gulf of Maine, coupled with an incoming upper level negatively tilted trough which could potentially steer this system closer to the NE coast. The track takes the center southeast off E LI early tomorrow. Then it makes a counter clockwise loop NW just south of Nantucket, moving S of E LI before rotating East and out to sea.

This rotation wraps around strong wind gusts and flooding downpours across Southern New England into the tri-state area. 2 Major issues, strong to damaging wind gusts and flooding downpours. First on the winds. The strongest gusts will be along coastal sections of C and E LI, southern CT, RI, Cape Cod, the islands, and E MA. A High Wind Warning was just posted for this area. Too gusts are expected to reach up to 60mph, possibly hurricane force (75mph), depending on location of low. Power outages are a high possibility, especially given all the leaves still on the trees. Further west in southern NE will still be impacted with 40-50mph gusts which are strong enough to take down limbs and trees. SE NH could see 30-50mph on the high end, especially along the coast. Heading SW into the tri-state area in NYC, NJ and lower Hudson Valley wind gusts will top out between 30-40mph (with isolated higher gusts). While not wide spread, these E to NE wind gusts can still knock down limbs and trees, and especially Halloween decorations so I’d prep for that. By Wednesday afternoon most of the Northeast will have backyards painted with wet leaves and deciduous trees, creating that ominous yet stunning late Fall scene.

The 2^nd major issue is flooding. This is a bit more challenging on the forecast front in determining the highest amounts and location. Banding features that wrap around given the track and intensity of the storm make it difficult to “back yard” forecast. Model mayhem confirms this too. The latest 18z run of the NAM dumps the highest amounts across NJ, lower Hudson Valley, NYC and W/C LI with a widespread 2-4” with narrow band of 5-6” in E PA. The Cape, E MA and seacoast are on the lower range of 1-2” (but receive the brunt of the strongest gusts). The 12z Euro is much more bullish unfortunately on rainfall totals with central NJ in the bullseye again with 4-6” (locally higher amounts). Lastly, the 12z GFS still hits NJ pretty hard but not as bad as the Euro. SE NH could see up to 2-3” on the high end. See maps below.

Timing:

NJ NYC LI Hudson Valley

Downpours commence later this evening from 8pm-10pm onward, and depending on track, lasts through out Tuesday morning into the afternoon. A further west track like the Euro continues the deluge into Tuesday evening. Winds strengthen later tomorrow into the afternoon/evening, and right Wednesday morning, especially the further east you live.

Southern New England

The initial bands move thru CT RI EMA around 11pm-12am tonight and between 12am and 3am up into MA to S VT and NH. By daybreak Tuesday and through out the day heavy wind blown downpours pick up in intensity as the wrap around bands from the storm circle over New England including coastal Maine before clearing out on Wednesday.

Bottom line, this is a prep for the worst hope for the best scenario. In my highlighted areas above for the strongest wind gusts, gas up the generators, move loose outdoor items indoors, PLEASE move cars away from trees, charge your phones and computers, clean the gutters, and stock up on food and batteries. For flood prone areas, most of you that went through Henri back in August know the drill. Move upstairs your belongings from the basement and check your sump pumps. That’s because this isn’t a one and done storm. We’re now in an active pattern for multiple storm threats, possibly this weekend and into the first 2 weeks of November. Dare I say the S word?? An early start to winter is on the table. Details forthcoming. My posts will be more frequent so be sure to check your emails, and the rest of my social media. Be safe, avoid travel tomorrow if possible, and check on your neighbors. I’ll be back shortly with any changes and details on what’s next! Time for a nap, because weather has no plans to sleep, ever!