Hurricane Force Winds, Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Heavy Rainfall
Good morning, folks. To those who celebrate, Happy New Year and Shana tova! Let’s get straight to the tropics, with a very brief update. Since my last update, the latest 8am update from the National Hurricane Center upgraded Ian to Category 1 Hurricane with 75mph winds, and minimum pressure dropping to 981mb. Rapid strengthening will continue over the next day to at least a major CAT 3 hurricane. Its currently located 90 miles SW Grand Cayman and 275 miles SE of western part of Cuba. Its current track takes it near the Cayman Islands today, Cuba tonight, SE Gulf tomorrow, and approach west coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane Watches were issued this morning for Tampa, Clearwater Beach, Sarasota, Brandenton and Venice. Storm Surge Watch was also issued for the Keys, and Anclote River south to Tampa. Ian’s ultimate track once it approaches Florida still isn’t locked in. But one troubling feature could exacerbate problems in turns of storm surge for SW Florida. A blocking high appears to significantly slow down Ian’s forward rate of speed as it approaches the coast (which still looks to be around Tampa). This will create a prolonged period of high winds, storm surge (possibly 6 to 9 feet) and flooding rain (up to 15-25″) to the coast. This also impacts its track, timing and which direction it takes. Whether that’s over Florida into the SE Atlantic, or swipes the west coast on up to GA into the Carolinas, and eventually into the Northeast, isn’t determined as of yet. The Euro, which has been consistent on more NE inland track, shifted west on this mornings 06z run. There’s a shot Tampa doesn’t get slammed.
I’ll be back late tonight or first thing Tuesday morning with a more specifics on track and timing for the entire East Coast.
