Volcanoes, tsunami warnings, ice and snowstorms, tidal flooding, near hurricane force winds, below zero wind chills, and NFL playoffs, oh my! Where to turn to next! Ok, let’s talk the T’s: precipitation type, track of storm, timing, and totals. With out a doubt, this is truly a complex storm that in the end will leave many without snow and few hours of slop/mix and rain. Models have been fairly consistent on tracking the low well west of I95 leading to little of any accumulation of snow from DC, Philly, NYC on up to Boston and east of those cities. Many atmospheric gears are in play and when you combine a true arctic airmass and “warm” SSE ocean winds it creates smorgasbord of elements from Tennessee, Georgia to the Carolina’s due north to Buffalo, east to Berlin (NH) to Caribou, ME. As most of you know, my coverage area has grown a bit over the years, but primary spot is the entire Northeast. I will however, cover the T’s for other regions with long term followers of mine from the Carolinas due north.
SC: Rain starting around 12am tonight, yet temps begin to drop leading to a change over to sleet and freezing rain north of I20 before changing back to all rain later in the afternoon, tapering off between 3-6pm. Far NW counties of Oconee, Anderson, Greenville, Spartanburg, Union and Laurens could see 3-6” of snow with higher amounts closer to the state line. Further east in SC gets very dangerous with ice build up of 0.50” to nearly 1”. Widespread power outages are likely (see below for appx areas in pink with highest forecasted amounts).
NC: Precip begins around 3am in NW NC as snow, totaling 6-12” west of I70. Between I70 on east to I95 is the danger zone for freezing rain. Similar to SC, long term power outages along with tretcherous driving conditions tomorrow into Monday are likely. East of I95 will be all rain, with possible thunder and strong wind gusts, especially along the coast. Up to 50-70mph is possible.
DC: Precip moves into area between 2-4pm Sunday beginning as snow given temps will be in the upper 20s to start. Yet as NE winds rotate from the E, temps begin to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s by midnight. Leading to mix of sleet, freezing rain to all rain, ending between 10pm and 1am. Any snow accumulations (1-2” tops), will be knocked down.
NJ: Precip moves into SNJ between 3-6pm beginning in most locations with big flakes. But the changeover will be quick. Any accumulations will be limited to NW counties. The Euro is most bullish with up to 6” in Sussex, with the GFS and NAM printing just 1-2” tops. Sleet to heavy rainfall will be the main elements all coming to end appx between 5-7am Monday. Unfortunately, the biggest concern will the strong to damaging SE winds pounding the entire coast (not as strong inland but enough to also cause down trees and power outages). Gusts of 50-60mph, up to 70mph (along the beaches) is possible between the early evening hours Sunday into the overnight. Besides beach erosion and tidal flooding which will be exacerbated by the Full Moon Monday, power outages are expected due to down trees and power lines. Preparations should begin now if you haven’t yet. In the event you lose power plan on it being out for days if not longer. Temps do climb into the 40s Monday and 30s Tuesday, but another blast of arctic air arrives towards the end of the week so plan accordingly. As always, its better to plan for the worst with a much less severe outcome vs being caught unprepared. Models can be wrong and sometimes over estimate severe weather. That said, these south east winds will be howling big time and should NOT be taken lightly.
NYC/ LI / Coastal CT: Precip moves into the 5 boroughs and LI between 5-8pm, also beginning as wet snow/sleet with a rapid changeover to all wind swept pouring rain. Don’t surprised if you hear a crack or 2 of thunder. As with the NJ coast, strong to damaging winds will slam the coastal sections between appx 8-9pm through the overnight hours. They will be strong enough to also cause power outages, coastal flooding and beach erosion along the south shore. Higher gusts will hit the eastern tip the hardest, also with 50-70mph gusts. All precip will be done by Monday morning with left over rain bands moving though.
Hudson Valley: Precip commences between 6-8pm beginning also as snow. This area is tricky due elevation issues, and the eventual kryptonite to snow, warm air. North of I84 from Newburgh to New Paltz east to Lagrangeville can see anywhere between 4-8”. That said, unlike widespread snowstorms this particular system will produce dry spots due to “warm tongues”. Strong to damaging wind gusts will pick up over night leading isolated power outages. All precip tapers off by Monday morning.
Boston Area: Precip begins appx 11pm Sunday to 1am Monday. Any big flakes will be short lived and change over the a mix of slop to all rain ending late Monday morning. Primary concern and impact will be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 70mph, with hurricane force winds over the Cape and Islands. Widespread power outages should be planned for.
NH: Precip commences as all snow on the front end between 11pm Sunday and 2am. A transition to a mix of sleet/freezing rain to all rain along the Seacoast and SE Coastal sections of Maine happens during the overnight hours, all tapering off late Monday morning to early/mid afternoon. Off and snow showers during the day are possible. Accumulations look to be confined to Carroll, Grafton and W Merrimack counties. Snow totals range from 6-12”. SW NH near Keene is tricky but 3-6” is a safe bet. The 700mb (appx 10,000 feet) relative humidity has some dry tongues across the region limiting widespread snowfalls. After a brutally cold start to the storm, S to SE winds off the ocean take temps temporarily into the upper 30s to low 40s along the seacoast. Similar to the SE coast and NJ shore, very strong winds from 30 to 50mph inland to over 60/70mph along coastal sections will cause down trees and power lines. The back bays in Hampton which normal flood during high tide, will have serious problems with the SE flow along with astronomical high tides due to the full Moon on Monday. Near hurricane force winds will ride the entire Maine coast during the day Monday! Brutal temps make there way back on Tuesday and later in the week, but that’s a topic for a different post.
All right, that’s about all I have for now folks. It’s a complex storm system that will throw literally every element there is out there. Plenty of winter left, especially for the I95 snow hounds, with multiple major storm threats, along with more significant arctic blasts. All for a separate post including my thoughts on the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano blast and possible impact to global temperatures. Lastly, I just wanted to thank everyone for subscribing. I truly appreciate your loyalty and trust. I will continue to read, research, analyze, forecast, and most importantly, share my knowledge with all of you. I also want to profusely thank those who continue to support WeatherReMarks through monthly donations! If you happen to find my updates and posts to be not just entertaining but useful to you throughout the year, please consider making a small donation of any amount. I made the decision to keep my website ad free. My costs to run my website, software and various subscriptions for models, radar, etc. are not steep yet help me create and provide the added benefits to all the hours and time spent researching, analyzing and writing up my posts. The setup is quick and easy for a nominal monthly payment. Just go to the menu bar above and click on Support Weatherremarks, or click here: Patreon page (Venmo is also an option @WeatherReMarks). I do offer specific weather forecasts a week or two ahead, same day or even hourly, related to business trips, upcoming vacations, and future outdoor activities. Many do reach out throughout the year for my advice and make changes to their travel plans when necessary. Please reach out to me on the menu section under, Contact Me. As always, thanks again for reading and following. That’s it for now. Stay safe, check your neighbors, and prepare. I’ll be back with any changes and will be posting regularly on Twitter. Eventually hitting the pillow as I need some shut eye, because weather never sleeps!!