Henri Paints an Ominous View with an Open Window to a S New England Hit

Good morning weather folks! I want to keep this relatively brief but felt it was important enough to give a heads-up with some details on the track of Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane Henri. As of the 5am update, its currently located 810 miles S of Nantucket with nearly hurricane strength winds of 70mph (gusting to 86mph) and minimum pressure of 995mb. Initial models and the National Hurricane Center had a track taking Henri north and eventually recurving east and out to sea (OTS). That has since changed.

One of the key ingredients for my earlier call of an East Coast hit this season, especially the Northeast was placement of a blocking ridge which prevents cyclones from pulling away from our coast. Also on the atmospheric canvas are above normal sea surface temperatures, an incoming trough which could steer it towards or hug the coastline, a trough in SE Canada, and a full moon Saturday (astronomical high tides). All that said, it looks increasingly likely Henri makes a sharp right turn after meandering off the SE coast, and heads North on Friday, brushes the tip of LI, making landfall in southern New England on Sunday (The Cape, RI, E MA) before tracking NE into the Gulf of Maine. While I do believe this is a Southern New England hit, just like major snowstorms, a slight jog east or west can have a significant impact leading to a slight breeze or major damage. 3 days is enough time to see adjustments to its track, so I’ll be keeping a close “eye” on its track.

3 days is also enough time to prepare in this area for power outages, down trees, flooding and storm surge along coastal sections. I firmly believe that its better to prep in advance, not hours before, and a storm misses, then do nothing and you get hit hard. Tidal flooding will be exacerbated by the full moon Saturday, and strong to damaging wind gusts can cause trees to snap (put your cars in the garage or at least away from trees) a loss of apple and corn crops, among other impacts. The only Northeast sports team that may be cancelled are the Sox vs Texas on Sunday (Yanks too if Henri trends west). At the moment, for NJ, and the rest of the immediate tri-state area, Sunday will be a non-event with breezy, warm and humid conditions@ (the air will definitely feel tropical). However, all coastal sections will see moderate beach erosion, dangerous surf and rip tides, along with coastal flooding, especially during high tides. If its track jogs further west, then all bets are off.

What many folks don’t realize, either you weren’t born yet, don’t know anyone who has experienced Hurricanes first hand, or haven’t looked back and read the history, the Northeast has experienced numerous hurricanes in the past. Just to name a few (you can find the details online for each): Gloria in ’85, CAT1 into LI/CT, Donna ’62 CAT2 into LI, Edna ’54 CAT2 Cape Cod/ MV, Carol ’54 CAT3 into RI (135mph winds on Block Island), The Great Atlantic Hurricane ’44 CAT1 into CT/RI, The Great New England Hurricane ’38 CAT3, just to name a few. The records go all the way back to the 17th century. Last point, the more recent hurricanes are not getting larger and more powerful (all the meteorological historical statistics from previous canes are there to see and are well documented). The difference now is that we’ve seen tremendous population growth along with structures that have been built along coastal sections (many on literal sand barriers) and are in direct path of these storms. Hence more damage. Plus, technology is vastly improved. More storms are being named now, partly due to satellites, which were first used in 1960. While we’ve been relatively lucky since Sandy (can’t believe it’s been 10 years ago this October), there’s no reason we can’t have a repeat of the 1940s and 1950s where over 23 hurricanes ravaged the east coast. Weather, although not exact, tends to repeat itself over time. So much more to share, but on another post for another day.

That’s it for now. Hope all my NJ followers aren’t too blurry eyed due to all the Tornado Warnings going off on their phones last night. The remnants of Fred is still making its way north. In fact, Upstate NY, and most of VT and NH are under flash flood watches today, with 2-4″ of flooding downpours expected. I’ll be back shortly to narrow down Henri’s track, and provide impact and timing, but I would start getting a plan together in S NE. Have a great day and remember, weather never sleeps!