Good afternoon weather folks! Hope all is well and everyone is staying cool! I just wanted to jump on to discuss briefly two topics, the triple H’s and how long this current heat wave lasts, and an update on the tropics. After a cooler then normal July (and wet as some monthly rainfall records were broken as well S NE droughts which typically end with flooding rains) and start to August, the dog days of summer have indeed arrived. Summers have heat waves and this one is a dandy. As I sometimes do, I compiled above my Northeast selected cities normal high and low temps along with record highs/lows on this date. Given we’re losing day light hours (most are upset with this but not me), and the sun now sets before 8pm, here’s the latest sunrise / sunset times below.
Regarding the current heat blasting the Northeast, utterly putrid conditions last another 2 more days unfortunately. A litany of advisory’s, watches, warnings are painting the NWS map. Excessive heat warnings shouldn’t be taken lightly. There will be some isolated pop up storms later today into the evening, especially further north in the upper Hudson Valley, W MA, VT and NH. Some of these will be severe containing strong to damaging wind gusts. For those who are new here, I tweet up to the minute storm updates, watches, warnings and radar covering most the Northeast, and usually ahead of your point and click phone alerts. Sorry if I sound like a broken record but if you’re not on Twitter, get on. Worse case, you can see my 5 most recent tweets here on my website. If on Facebook I sometimes link my tweets there (both accounts are Weatherremarks).
Bottom line, for basically the entire Northeast I95 corridor, for today AND Friday, temps will be the low to mid 90s along with high dew points driving the heat index over 100°F in many spots. Any relief can be found at the NJ shore (LBI), the tip of LI, the Cape, on up to the Seacoast and coastal Maine. Expect Friday afternoon to evening thunderstorms as well.
For the weekend, Saturday takes a minor step down in temps but still hot and humid with temps hovering in the upper 80s to low 90s. HOWEVER, a strong cold front in the afternoon finally breaks the triple H’s with a noticeably and absolutely stunning refreshing airmass (see dew point map above). Temps will drop 20°+ in a heartbeat with plenty of 60s over night (even some 50s upstate NY and VT/NH)! Sunday will be partly sunny with temps in the lower 80s, upper 70s in SNE. AHHH will be the overwhelming sound. The initial look for next week shows no heat waves with normal temps for this time a year (refer to my chat above for normal ranges), and mainly dry conditions until our next chance for rain (remnants of Fred?) moves though Wednesday / Thursday.
Topic of Tropics, Yabba Dabba Doo!
Per my 6/30 post forecasting an activity Atlantic Hurricane season, buckle up. After a quiet July, we’re headed into the meat and potato’s time of year. Plus a combo of ideal conditions (La Nina, above average sea surface temperatures, less shear, blocking highs over the Northeast, among other variables). Some of these cyclones down the road could fill the airwaves, TV and social media, moving Covid off page 1.
Currently we have Tropical Storm Fred (which actually for the moment was downgraded to a depression as the mountains of the Dominican Republic and Haiti tore it apart). As of 5pm ET it’s currently 470mi ESE of Key West, Florida. Tropical Storm Watches have just been issued for the Florida Keys, and SW FL from Bonita Beach South and East to Ocean Reef. However, once over water it’ll restrengthen with a track taking it towards the Florida Keys by Saturday and hug the west coast through Sunday. Depending on its track, If it heads further west in the gulf, Fred could intensify into Hurricane, possibly as a strong Category 2/3 and make landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River. If it maintains a closer ride up the Florida west coast then Fred’s winds will be contained to strong gusts but still drive flooding downpours from Marathon to Marco Island, on up from Tampa to Tallahassee. Georgia, the west side of the Carolina’s up to the northeast could be in the crosshairs of flooding downpours early next week. Stay tuned for further updates on Fred (again I tweet regular daily updates from the National Hurricane Center regarding tropical systems as the approach our shores).
Behind Fred is a tropical disturbance soon to be Grace which is expected to track near the Leeward Islands this weekend. This could be trouble for the Caribbean and head into the Gulf later next week. Plenty behind that as well. The East Coast should remain alert this season. Stay tuned. Here’s the 5 year list of names, yes the NHC goes out 5 years. See if you’re on there!
That’s is for now. Oh, for all you astronomical addicts, tonight is the Perseid meteor shower. Northeast skies aren’t ideal unfortunately (see forecasted cloud map below, as S New England looks partially clear around midnight but could change). While the best time to see them is usually before dawn (3-4am), you can still capture a few around midnight. Be sure to find a wide open field as many of the brighter meteors are at lower elevations. Have patience and allow for your eyes to get adjusted for 15min or so. Enjoy, stay cool, check on your elderly neighbors and stay tuned for further updates! And remember, Weather Never Sleeps.
Brilliant as usual.
Thank you, appreciate it!