Good afternoon weather warlocks! Just wanted to jump on with a quick outlook for the next 3 days. Plenty of interest for the extended Halloween weekend since it falls on Sunday, and many of little kids will be trick or treating on Saturday, or better known as mischief night. If you grew up Northern NJ like me and parts of upstate NY, it was called goosy night, or gale night up in NH. What did you call it as a kid? Well, unfortunately we have another storm system moving towards Northeast later today and into the weekend with flooding downpours and strong wind gusts. Fortunately, it won’t be anything like our Nor’easter earlier in the week which lived up to its billing especially in southeast New England, and conditions will be ideal for the Halloween!
Coastal sections of SE Mass and RI are still cleaning up with 130,000 without power, down from over 500,000 at its peak. Hurricane force wind gusts did hit with a 94mph gust in Edgartown on the Vineyard. See top gusts above. I love digging into all the buoy stats that are in the path of ocean storms. See my tweet below on a buoy off of Georges Bank (196mi E of Hyannis) with a 24 foot wave! Rainfall totals across the tri-state area didn’t disappoint either with a widespread 3-6″ across NJ NY and LI. October does indeed love Nor’easters! Actually today’s the 9th anniversary of Sandy, how time flies.
NJ and the 5 Boroughs
OK, a bit short on time so lets discuss timing and what to expect for our next rain and wind event for the northeast. Given its track from the SW to the NE, SNJ to CNJ/NYC/LI get hit first on its path to SE New England and further NE into Maine. Peak wind gusts (strongest along the NJ coastline and LI south shore) will reach hair raising 40-60mph. That will lead to outages, especially given the saturated ground from earlier in the week. Wind and coastal flood advisories are up for most of S and SE NJ and LI. Winds are already kicking up along the NJ coast with Harvey Cedars gusting to 49mph from the SE. Beach erosion and street flooding are expected later today into tomorrow. Rain moves into SNJ around sundown becoming steadier and heavier as the system tracks N, throughout the evening, ending before sunrise. Looks like 1-2” across NJ and the 5 boroughs, lesser amounts further E and N. Winds across the tri-state area will be a bigger issue (more so along the coast) but inland too from 4/5pm till around 11pm to midnight. Loose items, Halloween decorations, garbage pals, etc should be brought in. Some of these stronger gust can break branches and knock over weakened trees so look where you park when you get home today.
Saturday/Sunday
We get a break from the rain during the morning hours, as temps rise into the mid to upper 50s under partly cloudy skies. Unfortunately, you’ll need to put on the rain gear for the little ones, OR take them out on actual Halloween night, even though it’s a school night! Off and on showers, especially further east settle back in during afternoon and evening hours. For Halloween, it’s a whopper of a forecast, if anything perhaps too warm, lol. The bloody mercury will be in the low 60s during the day with partly sunny skies, dipping into the low to mid 50s at night. It should be clear enough to see a few starbursts and the Milky Way.
Southeast New England
We have 2 rounds to contend with the first, a lighter event overnight tonight into Saturday morning. CT MA up to VT and NH will light to moderate showers through the late morning to early afternoon. However, a deepening low off the NJ coast is on its tail moving due North. Heavy downpours arrive in the mid to late afternoon, and through the evening hours, especially SE New England, including RI SE MA, C and E NH, and most of Maine. Fortunately it tapers off by Sunday morning, but not before dropping in excess of 2-4” in the areas mentioned above. Winds will be whipping upwards to 35-45mph, with higher gusts along coastal Maine down to SE MA and the Cape again (much less severe but could hamper continued cleanup efforts and cause more power issues due weakened trunks and saturated ground). VT and NH mountains will see higher rainfall amounts and stronger gusts as well. But like the folks down south, Halloween looks dry and a perfect night for Trick or Treats!
That’s it for now. I’ll be back over the weekend to share a basket full of devilish treats which include a chilling airmass, and potential snow for parts of the Northeast later next week into week 2 of November. Enjoy the second half of the weekend folks, and remember weather never sleeps!
I remember goosey night in Wayne NJ!