Good morning! I hope everyone is well! It’s been 2 weeks since my last post on Tropical Storm Fay. Most of my long term followers and newer folks by now have come to see I don’t post daily or even every week, yet when I do they’re filled with lots of details on upcoming weather events. Whether its on a pending storm, providing an outlook on the week ahead, to clues or hints on where I think temperatures are going, or in today’s case, what lurking in the tropics. I struggle between posting more frequently with less detail vs my present style. Sometimes, certain details or forecasts get lost in my proverbial blog abyss (I do know that many of you read verbatim what I write, and I truly appreciate that!). Therefore, while it may come across as “I told you” when I occasionally mention comments from my previous posts, its more to summarize or explain what I was thinking and how actual events sometimes work out! With that said, I’ll briefly review some of my earlier and more importantly, my current thought’s on the Tropics in just a moment. But first, lets take a look at July temps, what to expect for the rest of week as we begin August, the heats hiatus and a glimpse into next week.
July has certainly been a toasty one to say the least (see the above temperature anomaly map). And if you love storms like myself, the southwest flow providing humid air masses clashing with the occasional cold fronts, have certainly provided plenty of atmospheric entertainment, and plenty of rain. In fact, at least in NYC, month to date rainfall is 5.72″ vs normal of 4.26″. The normal high/low on this date is 84°F/69°F and the record high/low on this date is: 98°F in 1988/1940 and 57°F in 1956. Sunrise was at 5:51am this morning and sunset today is 8:13pm.
Today: Triple H’s persist. It’s a mostly sunny, hot and humid day with the mercury popping into the 90s again, right up the I95 corridor. There’s a risk of pop up storms in the mid to late afternoon, but not wide spread.
Friday: We finally get a break from the heat as temps drop into low 80s but due to mostly cloudy skies and more wide spread down pours. Rain moves into the tri-state area well before sunrise and right into the late morning before tapering off later the afternoon/early evening hours.
Saturday: (better half of the weekend). First day of August brings back disgust, as temps climb into the upper 80s to low 90s yet under mostly sunny skies. Sunday and into Monday, it’s more of the same, HHH upper 80s to low 90s inland, but there’s a risk of showers and thunderstorms both days. This heat finally takes a hiatus later next week. However, there’s a risk of tropical trouble driving wet weather our way.
Time to Talk Tropical Trouble: Next Up, Tropical Storm Isaias!
As brief review for those just jumping on, back on my 4/17 post, I mentioned “the above average sea surface temps on the East Coast may be foreshadowing for an active Hurricane season coming up”. Followed by my 6/30 post regarding the tropics I said “the Sounds of Silence come to mind as the Atlantic and Pacific are eerily shut down. But it’s the quiet before the storm as activity should pick up later in July into August/September so buckle up and stay tuned.” Since 6/30, we’ve had a few named storms out in the Atlantic with no land impact, TS Fay hit, Gonzalo went gonzo after it formed in the Caribbean, then Hanna strengthened into a CAT 1 Hurricane shortly before hitting the SW Texas coast, and Hurricane Douglas grazed the Hawaiian Islands last weekend (I covered and tracked all of these storms daily and will continue going forward during this Hurricane Season on Twitter @weatherremarks for those interested and want detailed info).
Right now, a number of atmospheric gears (similar to an old clock) are at work. From a strong Atlantic High (rotating clock wise) steering tropical waves (rotating counter clockwise) west underneath, a strong Ridge over the Northeast and the timing of a digging trough in the Tennessee Valley to draw the storm up the coast, are all in play.
Up next is newly formed Tropical Storm Isaias (pronounced, EE sah EE ahs). Currently located 50 miles SW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, Isaias has winds of 60mph but has a massive wind field. Tropical storm forced winds extend out 325 miles from its center. It’s track and intensity are the 2 pieces everyone wants to know. The critical part comes today on how the storm reacts to the mountains of Hispaniola. Smaller storms that travel further south over the island tend to get ripped apart and/or steered towards the Gulf. Given Isaias’ size, and possible track on the northern side, the southeast coast, from Florida to the Carolinas on up is looking like it’s track. We’ll see later today but the possibility is increasing for Isaias to intensify once over the islands towards warmer waters and ride the Florida coast.
My initial call at this point would be for Isaias to eventually strengthen to a strong CAT 1 to possibly 2, and remain off the Florida coast. But eventually make landfall some where between Myrtle Beach to the south and Morehead City to the north Sunday night/Monday. Then rip north to the Delmarva Peninsula, hug the NE coast on up into New England.
Needless to say, folks along the eastern seaboard should remain vigilant. Even if Isaias remains a tropical storm, not strengthen and just hugs the East Coast eventually recurving out to sea, it’s size will at least bring heavy rainfall and gusty conditions by Saturday in Florida up to the Northeast early next week (see above/below all the various options on track, total precipitation and wind gust swath from the different models, including the National Hurricane Center. While all are useful, more times then not, the European tends to outperform, but not always on Hurricane tracks.
I’m on the road the rest of today but will be back with more details and fine tune Isaias track tomorrow. By the way, there’s another large wave in the eastern Atlantic that needs to be watched (Josephine is up next), which may meander of the southeast behind Isaias (most likely recurves but we’ll see). It’s only late July, and the pattern will remain active through October given the number of features I alluded to earlier. Buckle up folks (and why not add an active hurricane season to the list of 2020), for those living on or planning vacations along the entire East Coast (including New England) as well as the west coast of Florida and gulf coast states, you should remain alert this particular season. Please stay tuned, subscribe to my blog, pass along to those you feel may benefit from my updates, and follow my Twitter page and turn on the notifications. Again, much much appreciated to those willing to help out with nominal donations (found up on the my menu page, quick and easy setup)! Stay safe, and remember weather, And weatherremarks Never sleep!
Great content written with great style.
Thanks my friend !