Ferocious February with Bowling Ball of Storms (A Blockbuster or Blizzard Lurking?); Arctic Blast Comes Back Mid Month; An Active Pattern So Buckle Up!

Good evening atmospheric audience! I’m sure many of you are excited that days are getting longer (sun sets after 5pm now) and we’re getting closer to warmer weather and spring time festivities. However, buckle up folks. This month is not gonna be too kind to those who hate winter weather. Snow starved areas a.k.a. the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to Boston will get their fill by the end of this month. A series of storms and rumors of storms will be making Northeast headlines over the coming weeks along with the potential of another significant arctic blast by the middle of the month. A very active pattern is locked in.

In the short range, our first system arrives tonight into Thursday with a combination of light to moderate snowfall, along with sleet and freezing rain in areas which I’ll highlight in a moment. This is a quick mover but an appetizer for what’s coming. Our 2nd and more formable storm arrives this Saturday night into Super Bowl Sunday. This might be a more impactful system, especially for southern New England (sleet and ice further south). A 3rd storm which is not even on the map as of yet, looks to arrive next Tuesday-Thursday. And if that’s not enough, I’m eyeing next weekend for possible more significant event. I’ll cover that later but let’s work out the track timing and totals for our 1st system.

Tri-State Area (NJ/LI/Hudson Valley/CT): treacherous morning commute 

As mentioned this is a quick moving storm (6-8 hours tops) which is good news. Speed and followed by a “warm” airmass will keep down totals. But when it snows, it’ll accumulate quickly in a shorter amount of time. This makes it difficult for plows to keep up, creating travel concerns. Snow moves into Central and northern New Jersey between 4-6am tomorrow and right into the morning rush-hour across the five boroughs, lower Hudson Valley into Long Island, tapering off between 11am to 1pm (SW to NE across the area). Most of South Jersey will see sleet and rain. From appx Stockton to Sayreville on north will see between 1-3″ across NNJ, Hudson Valley and CT. Snow, sleet and freezing rain (slop) in the city and coastal sections can be expected, all leading to a slow morning commute so plan accordingly. Side roads and untreated main roads will a sheet of ice so avoid, if possible early morning driving. Temps do climb into the low 40s in C-SNJ and LI, and mid to upper 30s further north.

Southern New England (Boston area up to the Seacoast and Maine)

For Mass, the Cape, NH into Maine, snow commences between 8 and 10 AM from Southwest to Northeast, tapering off between 3 and 5 PM. Similar to our friends down south, totals will range between 2 and 4 inches (isolated 5″ in spots) including most of Mass, including Boston, south and central NH and coastal Maine. While it will be another frigid morning out the door (single digits across most of NH+ME, low to mid teens across MA), a “warm” air mass will push temps to at or near freezing by midday. As the snow tapers off in the mid afternoon, there is a risk for a changeover to sleet and freezing rain bet 3-6pm.

Second in Series of Snowstorm on Super Bowl Weekend

While only Wednesday, our next storm entering the northeast late Saturday into early Sunday morning, looks to pack a bigger punch snow wise, but further north into southern New England. For the moment, across the tri-state area this looks like mainly a sleet to freezing rain slop fest. I’m eyeing the bullseye for for accumulating snow, north of I84 up to Lake Winnie on east to southern Maine.

Initial timing begins very late Saturday night, tapering off late morning Sunday to early afternoon the further east into Maine. A conservative 4-8 inches is possible, but I may need to up those totals. Roads could be treacherous across New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley in Connecticut but fortunately late Saturday night when many are not on the road until very early Sunday morning.

That’s it for now. I’ll be back with any changes to totals and timing for Saturday into Sunday’s event. At least the storm will be mostly over well before kickoff on Sunday. Again, buckle up and take advantage of any dry and season seasonably warm days to stock up on salt, shovels, and winter gear. Old Man Winter is pissed off and while not a lock, this month into March may be a winter that many of us talk about for awhile. Stretch those backs, grab the popcorn and get ready for many juicy updates. As you all know WeatherReMarks and Weather never sleeps.